Report Note

This is a research framework and stock screening report, not investment advice. Data basis: macro and industry data from IEA, National Energy Administration, TrendForce, SemiAnalysis, Bloomberg, and company IR (mid-2026); financials from 2026 Q1 earnings / 2025 annual reports; valuation snapshot as of 2026-06-26 close. All conclusions distinguish “certainty / growth / valuation attractiveness / risk”.

Report Notes

This report is a research framework and target-screening report, not investment advice. Data baseline: macro and industry data are sourced from IEA, National Energy Administration, TrendForce, SemiAnalysis, Bloomberg, and company IR materials (mid-2026); financials are based on 2026 Q1 earnings reports / 2025 annual reports; valuation snapshots are based on the close on 2026-06-26. All conclusions distinguish among “certainty / growth potential / valuation attractiveness / risk.”

Nature of the Report: A research framework and target-screening report, not investment advice. The conclusions strictly distinguish among “certainty / growth potential / valuation attractiveness / risk.” Data Baseline: Macro and industry data are sourced from IEA, National Energy Administration, TrendForce, SemiAnalysis, Bloomberg, and company IR materials (mid-2026); company financials are mostly based on 2026 Q1 earnings reports (disclosed from 2026-04 to 05) or 2025 annual reports (disclosed from 2026-03 to 04); valuation snapshots are based on the 2026-06-26 close. All data have been verified through online searches and marked with sources/timestamps; individual items not verified online are explicitly marked as “(knowledge base as of 2026-01).” Coverage: 53 U.S.-listed companies / 34 A-share companies / 23 Hong Kong-listed companies, totaling approximately 110 companies. Scoring Model (100 points total): industry trend runway 20 + company competitive moat 20 + earnings delivery certainty 20 + valuation attractiveness 15 + financial quality 10 + shareholder returns 5 + risk controllability 10. Tiers: S Core Assets (high certainty, continuous tracking) / A Growth Optionality (large runway, high volatility) / B Thematic Watchlist (imaginative thesis, execution yet to be validated) / Risk Watch (clear issues in valuation/financials/orders/business model).

Part I: Summary of Core Conclusions

1.1 The Five Most Important Investment Themes for the Next Five Years

1.2 Allocation Priorities Across the Three Markets

In one sentence: Buy “certainty” in U.S. stocks, buy “upside/domestic substitution” in A-shares, and buy “low-valuation rerating + dividends” in Hong Kong stocks.

1.3 The 20 Stocks Most Worth Tracking Across the Entire Market

1.4 The 5–8 Core Names Best Suited for Long-Term Allocation (S-Tier, High Certainty + Reasonable Valuation)

1. NVDA (fwd PE 21.9, full-stack compute-chip monopoly, CUDA moat) — combines certainty with reasonable valuation
2. TSM (fwd PE 27.9, monopoly in advanced-node foundry, HPC accounts for 61%) — geopolitics is the only major risk
3. MSFT (fwd PE 19.2, Azure +40% + FCF + exclusive OpenAI compute)
4. ETN (fwd PE 30.2, leader in electrical distribution, AI DC revenue ~25–30%, backlog +44%)
5. VST (fwd PE 15–16, nuclear + Meta 2.6GW PPA materializes in 2027, the cheapest nuclear upside)
6. China National Nuclear Power 601985 (PE 22, the purest nuclear baseload play, 19 units under construction entering intensive commercial operation in 2026–2030)
7. Tencent 00700 (non-IFRS PE 14.5, internet AI monetization + buybacks >HKD 120B)
8. NARI Technology 600406 (PE 22, undisputed leader in grid secondary equipment, >50% share in flexible DC)

Same-tier alternatives: CEG, NEE, LNG, CLP Holdings, China General Nuclear Power, AVGO, TBever Electric.

1.5 The 5–8 High-Odds but Higher-Risk Upside Names (A/B-Tier, High Payoff)

1. MU (HBM supercycle, fwd PE 7.4 extremely cheap, but risk of cycle reversal after Samsung/SK new capacity comes online in CY2027–28)
2. COHR (6-inch InP lasers = the bottleneck key for 1.6T, fwd PE 44, vertically integrated, valuation expensive)
3. CRDO (AEC + SerDes, revenue +202%, fwd PE 40, top three customers account for 88%)
4. Siyuan Electrical 002028 (transformer export growth + North American AIDC breakthrough, PE 45, overseas +86%)
5. Jinpan Technology 688676 (most direct beneficiary in AIDC dry-type transformers, data center revenue +196%, orders +278%, PE 55)
6. OKLO (SMR + Meta 1.2GW binding agreement, first power in 2030, pure pre-commercial high-odds speculation)
7. Cambricon 688256 (five-year domestic AI chip substitution theme, 2025 shipments ~100,000 chips, turns profitable, but PE 337 bubble)
8. Sunny Optical 02382 (silicon photonics mass production in 2027 + automotive spin-off + net profit +72%, PE 12, undervalued + new growth curve)

1.6 High-Valuation or Pseudo-AI Names to Watch Out For (Risk Alerts)

• Extremely expensive non-monopolies: ARM (PE 393, Q4 growth slowed to +20%), AMD (PE 174, still a large gap versus CUDA), Cambricon (PE 337, 900B market cap / 2B profit), Hygon Information (revenue growth > profit growth, gross margin -5.9pct), TFC (PE 160, gross margin declining continuously), Oclaro Technology (PE 192, gross margin 23%, the lowest in the sector), Envicool (PE 218, 105.2B market cap / 500M profit), Gaolan (PE 401, small scale and thin profits).
• Pre-commercial / pre-production speculation: POET (pre-production, quarterly revenue <$1M / market cap $1.6B, short interest 18%), OKLO/SMR (NuScale) (no revenue realization within five years, reliant on financing).
• Loss-making / deteriorating financials: AAOI (still loss-making, Q1 miss, short interest 13%), CRWV (net loss widening, EV/Rev 13.7, capex consuming FCF to $1.2B), CGN Technology (continued losses of -287M, not a pure nuclear-power theme), Baotai Shares (net profit -30%, weak linkage to nuclear power), Longyuan Power (net profit -29%, intermittent and not aligned with the baseload theme), China Gas (net profit -16% and declining continuously, connection growth has peaked, dividend cut), Beijing Energy International (swung from profit to loss, weak pure wind/solar theme), Meituan (swung to loss, weakest relevance to this theme).
• Theme mismatch despite speculative run-up: CCI (has divested fiber/small cells; AI exposure ≈0 yet traded as a REIT), CNOOC (strongest financials, PE 7.6 / yield 6.1%, but upstream oil and gas rather than power operations, weak theme fit).

Part Two: Industry Chain Panorama

2.1 How AI Compute Demand Transmits Through the Value Chain

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AI Training/Inference Demand
   │
   ├─(1) chip design: GPU(NVDA)/ASIC(AVGO,MRVL)/domestic(Cambricon,Hygon,Huawei)          [gross margin 55–85%]
   │     └─ HBM(MU,SK,Samsung) + advanced packaging (CoWoS/2.5D(TSMC,AMAT,LRCX,KLAC,ONTO)
   │           └─ photolithography (EUV:ASML) + foundry(TSMC advanced process)
   │
   ├─(2) network interconnection: 800G/1.6T optical module (Zhongji Innolight,Eoptolink,COHR,LITE,AAOI)
   │     └─ optical component / InP laser(COHR,LITE) + DSP/SerDes/Retimer(ALAB,CRDO,MRVL)
   │           └─ PCB(Huadian,Shenghung) + switch/assembly (CLS,SMCI,Foxconn Industrial Internet,Inspur)
   │
   ├─(3) server/rack: GB300 NVL72 complete unit (Foxconn Industrial Internet,SMCI,Inspur,Lenovo) + liquid cooling (VRT,Envicool,Gaolan,nVent,Eaton)
   │
   ├─(4) data center: IDC REIT(EQIX,DLR,GDS) + cloud capex (MSFT,GOOGL,META,AMZN,ORCL,Tencent,Alibaba)
   │
   ├─(5) data center power: transformer / power distribution / UPS(ETN,Schneider,ABB,GEV,TBever,Siyuan,Jinpan,Huaming) + liquid cooling + power electronics
   │
   ├─(6) grid upgrade: UHV/transmission power distribution(NARI Technology,Pinggao,Xuji,TBever,PWR,MTZ) + EPC construction (PWR,MTZ,China State Construction)
   │
   ├─(7) baseload power generation: nuclear power operation (CEG,VST,TLN,China National Nuclear Power,China General Nuclear Power,CLP Holdings) + nuclear power equipment(Dongfang Electrical,Shanghai Electrical,Jiulian,Jiangsu Shentong,Yingliu)
   │           └─ natural gas pipeline/LNG(WMB,KMI,LNG,Kunlun,Hua Run Power,Huaneng) + uranium / nuclear fuel(CCJ,LEU)
   │                 └─ SMR/fusion (Oklo,NuScale,Western Superconducting) [pre-commercial]
   │
   └─(8) upstream material: uranium(CCJ), InP/optical component, nuclear-grade tubing(Jiulian), superconducting material(Western Superconducting), titanium/zirconium(Baotai)

2.2 Which Segments Are the Most Profitable (Gross Margin / Net Margin)

2.3 Which Segments Are the Most Competitive (Low Margins, Shallow Moats)

2.4 Which Segments Have the Highest Certainty Over the Next Five Years

1. Advanced-node foundry (TSMC) — the necessary path for all AI chips; HPC share is 61% and still rising, with FY26 revenue guidance of +>30%.
2. Compute chips (NVDA) — ecosystem moat from CUDA + NVLink, Blackwell/Rubin iterations, and a highly reasonable forward PE of 22.
3. Nuclear power operations (China National Nuclear Power/CEG/VST/China General Nuclear Power) — 20-year long-term PPAs + approval cadence + PTC; baseload scarcity is being re-rated.
4. Grid equipment (NARI Technology/ETN/TBever Electric) — transformer delivery lead times of 4–5 years, gas turbine production scheduled out beyond 2030; physical shortages + average annual investment of RMB 800 billion in UHV during the “15th Five-Year Plan.”
5. Natural gas pipelines (WMB/KMI) — long-term contracts + FERC-regulated moat + behind-the-meter gas-fired power for data centers.

Part III: U.S. Equity Target Research

3.1 Compute Chips / HBM / Semiconductor Equipment

NVIDIA (NVDA) — S 89/100

• Beneficiary chain: Compute chips (GPU/ASIC) + networking (IB/Ethernet) + software (CUDA) full-stack monopoly
• AI/DC revenue share: 92% (Q1 FY27 data center $75.2B / total $81.6B)
• Latest financials: Revenue $81.6B (Q1 FY27, period ended 2026-04-26, 2026-05-20) | YoY +85% | Gross margin 74.9% GAAP | FY26 full-year $215.9B (+65%)
• Valuation: PE-TTM 29.5 / fwd 21.9 / EV-EBITDA 23.8 / dividend yield 0.52% (dividend raised in 2026-06) | Market cap $4.66T
• Investment thesis: “Exceptionally strong” demand for Blackwell GB300 NVL72 + ASP upside + CoWoS capacity expansion + reasonable valuation
• 3–5 year drivers: Blackwell→Rubin iteration; CoWoS-L/FOPL capacity; CUDA ecosystem moat
• Real orders: Data center +92% YoY; FY26 +65%; TTM EPS $6.53
• Key risks: Customer concentration (any capex cut by a hyperscaler would have a major impact); H20 export restrictions have already caused a $4.5B loss; in-house ASICs (AVGO/MRVL/Google/Meta) divert demand over the long term
• Catalysts: GTC/Rubin roadmap, CoWoS capacity expansion, large sovereign AI orders

TSM TSM (TSM) — S 89/100

• Beneficiary chain: Advanced-node foundry monopoly (N3/N2/A14) + CoWoS advanced packaging
• AI/DC revenue share: HPC accounts for 61% (Q1 2026, +20pp QoQ); 3nm accounts for 25% of wafers; advanced nodes ≤7nm account for 74%
• Latest financials: Revenue $35.9B (Q1 2026, 2026-04-16) | YoY +35% | Gross margin 66.2% | EPS $2.47/ADR | FY26 guidance +>30%, capex $52–56B
• Valuation: PE-TTM 37.4 / fwd 27.9 / EV-EBITDA 19.5 / dividend yield 0.88% | Market cap $2.24T
• Investment thesis: Fully tied to NVDA/AMD/AVGO + ASP increases for advanced nodes + A14 mass production in 2028
• 3–5 year drivers: N2/A14 nodes; CoWoS-L capacity expansion; overseas fabs (Arizona/Kumamoto/Germany)
• Real orders: HPC share reached a record 61%; FY26 +>30%; capex moving higher
• Key risks: Taiwan Strait geopolitics (largest single-point risk); CoWoS capacity bottlenecks; overseas fab costs diluting gross margin
• Catalysts: A14 roadmap, CoWoS capacity milestones, 2nm yield

Micron (MU) — A Elasticity 85/100

• Beneficiary chain: HBM (core) + DRAM/NAND
• AI/DC revenue share: HBM4 revenue has exceeded $1B; data center revenue doubled YoY; HBM sold out through CY2027, with visibility into 2028
• Latest financials: Revenue $41.46B (Q3 FY26, period ended 2026-05-28, 2026-06-24, record high) | YoY +346% | Gross margin 84.9% non-GAAP (YoY +46pt) | EPS $25.11 | Q4 guidance $50B, gross margin ~86%
• Valuation: PE-TTM 25.6 / fwd 7.4 (extremely cheap) / EV-EBITDA 18.4 | Market cap $1.28T (up ~800% over 52 weeks)
• Investment thesis: Severe HBM shortage driving ASP surge + HBM4 volume production ramping 2x faster than HBM3E 12H + sold out through 2027
• 3–5 year drivers: HBM4/HBM4E cadence (CY2027); depth of NVDA attachment
• Real orders: Quarterly revenue $41.46B (YoY 4.5x); HBM4 already shipping in volume; sold out through 2027
• Key risks: HBM cycle reversal (CY2027–28 release of new Samsung/SK capacity); customer concentration (NVDA); recurrence of memory-cycle history (major loss in 2023); 85% gross margin is unsustainable
• Catalysts: HBM4E node, major NVDA orders, CY2027 capacity-release cadence

Broadcom (AVGO) — S 84/100

• Beneficiary chain: Custom AI ASICs (XPU) + networking chips (Tomahawk/Jericho) + VMware software
• AI/DC revenue share: ~49% (Q2 FY26 AI semiconductor $10.8B / total $22.19B); 72% on a semiconductor-only basis
• Latest financials: Revenue $22.19B (Q2 FY26, period ended 2026-05-03, 2026-06-03) | YoY +48% | Gross margin 77.1% | Adjusted EBITDA $15.24B (69%) | FCF $10.26B (46%) | Q3 guidance $29.4B (+84% YoY)
• Valuation: PE-TTM 60.7 / fwd 31.6 / EV-EBITDA 42.1 / dividend yield 0.71% | Market cap $1.78T
• Investment thesis: Google TPU + Meta XPU orders + ASP increases in advanced packaging + VMware integration
• 3–5 year drivers: Google TPU v7/v8; Meta XPU volume ramp; win rate for new ASIC designs (OpenAI/Apple)
• Real orders: AI semiconductor +143% YoY to $10.8B (above guidance); Q3 implies AI semi >200% YoY
• Key risks: Customer concentration (Google+Meta); Google insourcing risk; trailing EV/EBITDA of 42x is on the high side
• Catalysts: New ASIC design wins, 1.6T SerDes, VMware synergies

ASML — S/A 81/100

• Beneficiary chain: Global monopoly in EUV/High-NA lithography + DUV
• AI/DC revenue share: Memory accounts for 51% of system sales (driven by HBM/DRAM); EUV accounts for 65%
• Latest financials: Revenue €8.77B (Q1 2026, 2026-04-15) | Gross margin 53.0% | EUV €4.1B (+28% YoY, including 2 High-NA units) | FY26 guidance €36–40B (raised)
• Valuation: PE-TTM 61.1 / fwd 49.5 / EV-EBITDA 50.5 / dividend yield 0.49% | Market cap $691B
• Investment thesis: EUV orders +28% + High-NA shipments + monopoly premium
• 3–5 year drivers: High-NA EXE:5200B penetration; NXE:3800E ramp
• Real orders: Q1 €8.8B above guidance; Memory at 51% (AI); 2 High-NA units shipped
• Key risks: China exposure down to 19% (QoQ -17pt); escalation of export controls; pace of High-NA demand
• Catalysts: High-NA orders, 2027–28 major-customer capex cycle

KLA (KLAC) — A 78/100

• Beneficiary chain: Semiconductor process-control monopoly + advanced packaging inspection
• AI/DC revenue share: Advanced packaging FY25 +70% YoY, CY26 ~$1B (from $635M, +>50%)
• Latest financials: Revenue $3.415B (Q3 FY26, 2026-04-29) | YoY +11% | Gross margin 62.2% | non-GAAP EPS $9.40 | CY26 revenue growth raised to high teens
• Valuation: PE-TTM 70.4 / fwd 48.8 / EV-EBITDA 53.8 | Market cap ~$490B (after 10:1 split in 2026-06)
• Investment thesis: #1 share in advanced packaging + rising AI inspection intensity + WFE $140B
• Real orders: 52 consecutive quarters of YoY growth; #1 in advanced packaging (2025); +70% YoY
• Key risks: Memory cyclicality; customer concentration (Samsung/SK/TSMC); high PB of 55.7x
• Catalysts: HBM4 inspection intensity, GAA/N2 yield management

Applied Materials (AMAT) — A 73/100

• Beneficiary chain: Deposition/etch/ion implantation/advanced packaging equipment
• AI/DC revenue share: Advanced packaging revenue guidance CY26 +>50% (doubling over several years to >$3B)
• Latest financials: Revenue $7.91B (Q2 FY26, 2026-05-14, record high) | YoY +11% | non-GAAP gross margin 50.0% | EPS $2.86 | Q3 guidance $8.95B
• Valuation: PE-TTM 59.0 / fwd 52.4 / EV-EBITDA 44.6 | Market cap $497B (up ~242% over 52 weeks)
• Investment thesis: Long-term partnership with SK hynix + ASMPT NEXX acquisition expands panel-level packaging footprint
• Real orders: Q2 record $7.91B; Q3 guidance $8.95B; advanced packaging CY26 +>50%
• Key risks: Escalation of China export controls; advanced packaging competition (TEL/ASMPT); valuation has already expanded sharply
• Catalysts: Panel-level packaging integration, 3D advanced packaging demand

Lam Research (LRCX) — A/B 71/100

• Beneficiary chain: Etch/deposition + leader in HBM copper electroplating/TSV
• AI/DC revenue share: Memory ~39% of Systems; HBM/DRAM/advanced packaging CY26 +>50%
• Latest financials: Revenue $5.84B (Q1 FY26, 2026-04-22) | YoY +24% | CSBG $2.11B (first time above $2B) | EPS $1.47 | Q2 guidance $6.6B | CY26 WFE raised to $140B
• Valuation: PE-TTM 71.7 / fwd 47.9 / EV-EBITDA 58.6 | Market cap $474B
• Investment thesis: Leadership in HBM copper electroplating/TSV + WFE $140B
• Real orders: Q1 +24% YoY, a record; CSBG above $2B for the first time; DRAM at a record
• Key risks: Large China exposure at 34% (export controls); weak NAND demand; high PB of 44.8x
• Catalysts: HBM copper electroplating yield, 1c DRAM conversion

Marvell (MRVL) — B 69/100

• Beneficiary chain: Custom ASICs + optical interconnect DSPs (800G/1.6T) + Ethernet switching
• AI/DC revenue share: 76% (Q1 FY27 data center $1.833B / total $2.418B)
• Latest financials: Revenue $2.418B (Q1 FY27, 2026-05-27) | YoY +28% | non-GAAP gross margin 58.9% | FY27 guidance $11.5B (+40%) / FY28 $16.5B (+45%)
• Valuation: PE-TTM 85–118 / fwd 42–66 / EV-EBITDA 51.1 | Market cap $233B
• Investment thesis: Multiple custom ASIC projects + optical module DSP price increases + NVLink Fusion partnership
• Real orders: Custom ASIC FY26 $1.5B (from ~$0 in FY24); FY27 ASIC >20% YoY; optical interconnect FY27 >70% YoY
• Key risks: Customer concentration (custom ASICs); duopoly competition with AVGO; valuation has already priced in two years of growth
• Catalysts: Custom ASIC FY29 $10B target, 1.6T DSP share

AMD — Risk Watch 64/100

• Beneficiary chain: x86 CPU + AI GPU (Instinct MI350/MI400) second source
• AI/DC revenue share: ~57% (Q1 2026 data center $5.8B / total $10.25B)
• Latest financials: Revenue $10.25B (Q1 2026, 2026-05-05) | YoY +38% | Gross margin 53% GAAP | non-GAAP EPS $1.37 (+43%) | Q2 guidance $11.2B
• Valuation: PE-TTM 173.9 / fwd 59.8–74.1 / EV-EBITDA 103.8 | Market cap ~$850B
• Investment thesis: MI350 shipments + EPYC share gains
• Real orders: Data center +57% YoY; EPYC at a record; MI350 shipping but no standalone figures disclosed
• Key risks: CUDA→ROCm ecosystem gap remains wide; risk that MI350 yield/customer demand fails to validate; extremely high valuation (PE 174x)
• Catalysts: MI400/Zen5 node, ROCm ecosystem progress

ARM Holdings — Risk Watch 64/100

• Beneficiary chain: CPU IP licensing + architecture monopoly (mobile + data center Neoverse)
• AI/DC revenue share: Data center royalty Q3 FY26 +>100% YoY (set to become the largest business, surpassing mobile)
• Latest financials: Q4 FY26 revenue $1.49B (+20% YoY, 2026-05-06) | FY26 full-year $4.92B (+23%) | non-GAAP EPS $1.77
• Valuation: PE-TTM 393.3 / fwd 151.5 / EV-EBITDA 305.9 | Market cap $357B
• Investment thesis: Higher Armv9 per-chip royalty + CSS license + ~50% Arm share among hyperscalers
• Real orders: FY26 +23%; Q3 data center royalty >100% YoY; Neoverse deployed across more than 1 billion cores
• Key risks: Extreme valuation premium (PE 393x); Q4 growth slowed to +20% (vs Q3 +26%); Qualcomm dispute / x86 counterattack
• Catalysts: Data center royalty surpassing mobile, Armv9/v10 penetration

3.2 Networking / Optical Connectivity / Advanced Packaging / Server Assembly

Coherent (COHR) — A Elasticity 79/100

• Beneficiary chain: Vertically integrated optical components (InP lasers/EML/CW) + 800G/1.6T transceivers + CPO + OCS
• AI/DC revenue share: Data center and communications segments account for 75% of total revenue (~$1.36B, +40% YoY)
• Latest financials: Revenue $1.81B (Q3 FY26, 2026-05-06) | +21% YoY | Non-GAAP gross margin 39.6% | Non-GAAP EPS $1.41 (+55%) | First 1.6T revenue “accelerating faster than expected”
• Valuation: PE-TTM 181.2 / fwd 44.1 / EV-EBITDA 61.5 | Market cap $74.5B
• Beneficiary logic: Vertically integrated 6-inch InP wafers = key to the 1.6T bottleneck + early high-margin 1.6T revenue
• 3–5 year drivers: 1.6T volume ramp; InP capacity expansion; CPO/3.2T; OCS optical switching
• Real orders: First revenue from 1.6T datacom transceivers; first shipments of 6-inch InP wafers; multiple hyperscale design-ins
• Key risks: Extremely expensive valuation (PE 181x); InP capacity bottlenecks could constrain its own shipments (double-edged sword); competition from Lumentum/AAOI/Chinese vendors
• Catalysts: 1.6T ramp, InP capacity milestones

Celestica (CLS) — A 79/100

• Beneficiary chain: EMS/ODM server assembly + 800G switches (HPS) + AI compute platforms
• AI/DC revenue share: CCS segment accounted for 76% of total revenue in Q3 2025 (~$2.41B, +43%); communications within CCS +82%
• Latest financials: Revenue $4.05B (Q1 2026, 2026-04-27) | +53% YoY | FY2025 $12.39B (+28%) | Adjusted EPS $2.16 | 2026 guidance raised to $19.0B (+~40%), EPS $10.15
• Valuation: PE-TTM 40.9 / fwd 33.8 / EV-EBITDA 28.8 | Market cap $38.8B
• Beneficiary logic: Hyperscale 800G switch HPS + AI compute platforms + re-rating from an EMS discount
• Real orders: Hyperscale 800G HPS projects; 2026 guidance raised twice
• Key risks: EMS business has low barriers (competition from Wistron/Foxconn); gross margin only ~8%; transition volatility from a single large AI/ML customer
• Catalysts: 1.6T switch upgrade, CCS margin expansion toward 10%+

Fabrinet (FN) — A 78/100

• Beneficiary chain: Optical module/optical component contract manufacturing (800G/1.6T for Cisco/NVIDIA/AWS)
• AI/DC revenue share: Optical communications accounted for ~70% of total revenue in Q3 FY2026; telecom (including DCI) $628M (+55%); 800G+ products $313M+
• Latest financials: Revenue $1.214B (Q3 FY2026, 2026-05-04, record high) | +39% YoY | Non-GAAP EPS $3.72 | Q4 guidance $1.25–1.29B
• Valuation: PE-TTM 45.1 / fwd 32.0 / EV-EBITDA 35.0 | Market cap $18.8B
• Beneficiary logic: Multi-year milestone agreement with AWS + 1.6T mass production + capacity expansion at Thailand Building 10
• Real orders: NVIDIA ~28%, Cisco ~18%; multi-year milestone manufacturing agreement with AWS (including warrants); 1.6T in qualification with multiple hyperscalers
• Key risks: Customer concentration (NVIDIA+Cisco ~46%); EML laser supply bottlenecks; hyperscalers’ in-house optical modules may bypass contract manufacturers
• Catalysts: 1.6T transceiver volume ramp in FY2027, deeper direct relationship with AWS

Astera Labs (ALAB) — A 77/100

• Beneficiary chain: AI intra-rack connectivity ICs (PCIe/CXL retimers, memory buffers, Aries retimers)
• AI/DC revenue share: ~100%
• Latest financials: Q1 FY2026 revenue $308.4M (+93%) | FY2025 $852.5M (+115%) | GAAP gross margin ~76% | Q2 guidance $355–365M
• Valuation: PE-TTM 264.7 / fwd 133.3 / EV-EBITDA 282.6 | Market cap $67.2B
• Beneficiary logic: Dozens of retimers used per GB200/GB300 NVL72 system + pricing power amid shortages
• Real orders: Implied NVIDIA/AMD/Intel + multiple Top-4 hyperscalers; Q1 added design-ins “across the three major clouds”
• Key risks: Extremely high valuation (PE 265x); customer concentration (top two ~60%); potential in-house substitution by Broadcom/Marvell; CPO could hurt demand if it bypasses pluggable retimers
• Catalysts: PCIe Gen6/Gen7 penetration, CXL memory pooling

Credo (CRDO) — A Elasticity 77/100

• Beneficiary chain: High-speed SerDes/CDR DSP (AEC active electrical cables, optical DSP, LPO chips)
• AI/DC revenue share: ~100%; top three customers account for ~88%
• Latest financials: Q3 FY2026 revenue $407.0M (+201.5% YoY, +51.9% QoQ) | Non-GAAP gross margin 68.6% | Non-GAAP EPS $1.07 | Q4 guidance $425–435M
• Valuation: PE-TTM 94.8 / fwd 40.3 / EV-EBITDA 89.5 | Market cap $44.4B
• Beneficiary logic: Hyperscale AEC/optical DSP design-ins + exclusive AEC pricing power + ZeroFlap optical components in FY2027
• Real orders: Two major hyperscale customers; AEC adopted by NVIDIA Spectrum-X; top three customers account for 88%
• Key risks: Extreme customer concentration (top three 88%); competition from Broadcom Alpine/Marvell; damage if the AEC path is disrupted by CPO/linear optics
• Catalysts: AEC penetration in GPU scale-up, 1.6T optical DSP share, customer diversification

Lumentum (LITE) — A 76/100

• Beneficiary chain: Optical components (EML/CW lasers, pump lasers) + 800G/1.6T transceivers
• AI/DC revenue share: AI and cloud infrastructure account for >60%; components segment $533.3M (66% of total, +77%); systems segment $275.1M (+121%)
• Latest financials: Q3 FY2026 revenue $808.4M (+90.1% YoY, record high) | Non-GAAP gross margin 47.9% (+1270bps) | Non-GAAP EPS $2.37 | Q4 guidance $960M–1.01B
• Valuation: PE-TTM 143.8 / fwd 48.1 / EV-EBITDA 115.4 | Market cap ~$63.7B
• Beneficiary logic: EML/pump lasers + cloud transceiver LTAs with prepayment/take-or-pay terms + utilization/pricing upside
• Real orders: EML/pump laser + cloud transceiver LTA prepayment agreements; 1.6T ramp starting in Q4
• Key risks: Expensive valuation (PE 144x); EML competition with COHR/AAOI/Sumitomo; Apple 3D sensing cyclicality; CPO disruption risk
• Catalysts: 1.6T transceiver ramp, EML capacity expansion

Onto Innovation (ONTO) — B/A 74/100

• Beneficiary chain: Semiconductor metrology/inspection (advanced packaging HBM/CoWoS/2.5D defect inspection)
• AI/DC revenue share: Q1 2026 specialty devices + advanced packaging ~$160M (~55% of total), advanced packaging ~$107M; 2026 advanced packaging expected +>50%
• Latest financials: Revenue $291.9M (Q1 2026, 2026-05-05, record high) | +9.5% YoY | Non-GAAP gross margin 55.7% | Non-GAAP EPS $1.42 | 2026 guidance >$1.3B (+>30%)
• Valuation: PE-TTM 150.7 / fwd 45.3 / EV-EBITDA 77.9 | Market cap $16.1B
• Beneficiary logic: HBM/CoWoS/2.5D metrology demand + Dragonfly G5/3Di qualification
• Real orders: Dragonfly 3Di qualified by two major HBM customers; >20 tools shipped for subsurface defect inspection in AI packaging
• Key risks: Expensive valuation (PE 151x); semiconductor capex cyclicality; competition from KLA/Camtek
• Catalysts: HBM4 generation, new inspection demand from CPO/silicon photonics

Super Micro (SMCI) — B 69/100

• Beneficiary chain: AI server/rack assembly (GB300 NVL72 full systems, liquid cooling, DCBBS)
• AI/DC revenue share: AI GPU platforms accounted for >80% of total revenue in Q3 FY2026; AI backend backlog >$13B
• Latest financials: Revenue $10.2B (Q3 FY2026, 2026-05-05) | +123% YoY | GAAP gross margin 9.9% | FY2026 guidance $38.9–40.4B
• Valuation: PE-TTM 16.1 / fwd 9.6 (cheapest) / EV-EBITDA 15.5 | Market cap ~$17.8B
• Beneficiary logic: GB300 NVL72 rack backlog >$13B + liquid-cooling differentiation + extremely low valuation
• Real orders: GB300 Ultra rack backlog >$13B; AI GPU platforms >80% of revenue
• Key risks: Lowest barriers (assembly); gross margin only 10% and highly volatile (once 6.3%); overhang from past auditor resignation/Nasdaq compliance issues
• Catalysts: GB400 NVL72, DCBBS turnkey solution gross margin >20%

AAOI — Risk Alert 63/100

• Beneficiary chain: Optical transceivers (800G/1.6T) + CATV optical components
• AI/DC revenue share: Q1 2026 data center segment $81.4M (~54% of total); data center expected to become the largest segment in 2026
• Latest financials: Revenue $151.1M (Q1 2026, 2026-05-07) | +51% YoY | Non-GAAP gross margin 29.2% | Non-GAAP net loss $4.9M (EPS -$0.07, miss) | 2026 guidance >$1.1B (+~140%)
• Valuation: PE N/A (loss-making) / fwd 84.0 | Market cap $10.9B / short interest 13.3%
• Real orders: Initial volume shipments of first hyperscale 800G single-mode product; additional $124M order
• Key risks: Still loss-making; Q1 EPS miss; cost competition with Chinese vendors; short interest 13.3%; execution risk in capacity ramp
• Catalysts: Hyperscale 800G mass production, inflection point to profitability

POET Technologies — B Watchlist 49/100

• Beneficiary chain: Silicon photonics platform (Optical Interposer, 800G/1.6T optical engines, light sources)
• AI/DC revenue share: 100% (but pre-production; Q1 2026 revenue only $503K)
• Latest financials: Q1 2026 revenue $503K | Q4 2025 net loss $42.7M | 2025 financing $375M+
• Valuation: PE N/A (loss-making) | Market cap $1.63B / short interest 17.8%
• Real orders: $5M order for 800G POET Infinity; Lumilens $50M JDA (5-year pipeline $500M+)
• Key risks: Pre-production (quarterly revenue <$1M / market cap $1.6B); short interest 18%; dilution risk; uncertainty around silicon photonics path versus CPO/pluggables
• Catalysts: Mass production of 800G optical engines (>30,000 units shipped in 2026), 1.6T Teralight engine

3.3 Power / Grid / Liquid Cooling / Power Electronics / Engineering

Eaton (ETN) — S 84/100

• Beneficiary chain: Electrical distribution / medium- and high-voltage transformers / UPS / liquid cooling (Boyd Thermal) / medium-voltage switchgear
• AI/DC revenue mix: ~25–30% of group revenue (Electrical Americas data center Q1 YoY +~50%)
• Latest financials: Revenue $7.451B (Q1 2026, 2026-05-05) | YoY +17% (organic +10%) | Electrical Americas operating margin 25.6% | backlog +44% to a record high | 2026 guidance raised to organic +10%
• Valuation: PE-TTM 39.4 / fwd 30.2 / EV-EBITDA 28.5 / dividend yield 1.09% | Market cap ~$156B
• Bull case: Data center orders +240% YoY + transformer delivery lead times of 4–5 years + South Carolina $340M transformer plant to start production in 2027
• Real orders: Covers ~3,000 planned U.S. data center projects; 800 VDC / solid-state transformer pilots with hyperscalers
• Key risks: fwd PE 30x is already priced in; new plant does not start production until 2027; Aerospace/Vehicle dilutes the electrical alpha
• Catalysts: South Carolina / Nebraska new plants coming online; integration of Boyd Thermal liquid cooling

GE Vernova (GEV) — A 72/100

• Beneficiary chain: Power generation equipment (H-class gas turbines / wind / nuclear) + electrification (transformers / HVDC / GIS)
• AI/DC revenue mix: Q1 2026 Electrification data center equipment orders of $2.4B (above the full-year 2025 level); ~20% of the 100GW gas turbine backlog tied to data centers
• Latest financials: Revenue $9.3B (Q1 2026, 2026-04-22) | YoY +16% | Orders $18.3B (+71%) | backlog/RPO $163B (equipment backlog +80% YoY) | gas turbine backlog 100GW
• Valuation: PE-TTM 30.5 / fwd 37.3 / EV-EBITDA ~45–50 (TTM 108 distorted by the spin-off) | Market cap $281B
• Bull case: book-to-bill ~2.5x + new gas turbine orders +$10–20/kW + full acquisition of Prolec GE
• Real orders: Duke Energy framework agreement for 20 7HA units; Microsoft/Crusoe 19 turbines; AWS; Q1 new orders of 21GW
• Key risks: Market cap of $281B is already priced in; integration of Prolec GE $5.275B; wind remains a drag; gas turbine capacity bottleneck after 2028
• Catalysts: Gas turbine delivery cadence; scaling from Prolec GE integration

Vertiv (VRT) — A 80/100

• Beneficiary chain: Data center power (UPS / switchgear / PDU) + liquid cooling (CoolLoop / CoolChip CDU)
• AI/DC revenue mix: ~80%+ (highest purity)
• Latest financials: Revenue $2.65B (Q1 2026, 2026-04-22) | YoY +30% (organic +23%) | Adj operating margin 20.8% | Adj EPS $1.17 (+83%) | backlog $15.0B (+109% YoY, book-to-bill ~2.9x) | FY2026 guidance raised to $13.5–14.0B
• Valuation: PE-TTM 76.4 / fwd ~49 / EV-EBITDA 50.75 / dividend yield 0% | Implied market cap
• Bull case: Blackwell/GB200 NVL72 racks >100kW mandate liquid cooling + jointly developed reference designs with NVIDIA
• Real orders: NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 reference design partner; NxtGen AI sovereign AI factory; backlog $15B
• Key risks: Extremely expensive valuation (PE 76 / EV-EBITDA 50); EMEA orders weakened in mid-2025 and have not fully reversed; high concentration among hyperscale customers
• Catalysts: GB300 liquid-cooling penetration; EMEA recovery in H2 2026

Schneider Electric (SU/SNDRF) — S 82/100

• Beneficiary chain: Electrical distribution + energy management (#1 UPS APC + APC liquid cooling + low- and medium-voltage distribution)
• AI/DC revenue mix: Data Center & Networks end market = 30% of FY2025 orders (about 24% in 2024); pure data center Q4 2025 organic growth in the triple digits
• Latest financials: Q1 2026 revenue €9,767M (organic +11.2%) | Energy Management +12.8% organic | North America +15.9% organic | FY2025 group revenue €40.2B (+8.9% organic), record backlog €25.4B (+18%)
• Valuation: SU.PA PE-TTM 34.6–35.2 / fwd ~28.2 / EV-EBITDA 20.1 / dividend yield 1.52% | Implied market cap
• Bull case: 30% order exposure + North American data center grid-connection wave + €25.4B backlog visibility
• Real orders: hyperscaler + colocation acceleration in Q4 2025 (triple-digit pure DC growth); APC global #1 in UPS
• Key risks: 30% exposure = higher sensitivity to an AI capex slowdown (double-edged sword); no quarterly disclosure of book-to-bill
• Catalysts: APC liquid-cooling penetration; North American grid-connection wave

ABB Ltd (ABBNY) — A 80/100

• Beneficiary chain: Electrification (medium-voltage switchgear / transformers / MV-LV / UPS / synchronous condensers) + robotics
• AI/DC revenue mix: ~9% of group revenue in 2025 (7% in 2024); data center orders grew at a triple-digit comparable rate in Q1 2026
• Latest financials: Revenue $8,734M (Q1 2026, 2026-04-22) | YoY +18% reported / +11% comparable | Orders $11,298M (+24% comparable) | Operational EBITA margin 23.5% | Book-to-bill 1.29 | record order backlog $27,515M (+22%)
• Valuation: PE-TTM 39.1 / fwd 31.75 / EV-EBITDA 25.82 / dividend yield 1.12% | Market cap ~$189B
• Bull case: Electrification orders +44% comparable + partnership with NVIDIA on 800V DC architecture
• Real orders: Data center demand “broadly distributed across hyperscalers and colocation”; cited MSFT/AMZN/META/GOOGL/ORCL as drivers of Electrification
• Key risks: Only ~9% of group revenue comes from DC (not sufficiently pure-play); PE 39 already discounts too much
• Catalysts: Deployment of 800V DC architecture; synchronous condensers for grid-connection support

nVent Electric (NVT) — A 77/100

• Beneficiary chain: Power electronics / cabinet enclosures (HOFFMAN / SCHROFF) + liquid cooling (gray/white-space)
• AI/DC revenue mix: ~56% (Infrastructure vertical; primarily data centers, organic +~80%)
• Latest financials: Revenue $1,242M (Q1 2026, 2026-05-01) | YoY +53% (organic +34%) | Adj operating margin 20.0% | record backlog $2.6B | FY2026 guidance raised to +26–28%
• Valuation: PE-TTM 55.6 / fwd ~36.5 / EV-EBITDA 30.47 / dividend yield 0.52%
• Bull case: Liquid-cooling enclosure penetration + hyperscale orders + new product capacity contributing >20 points
• Real orders: backlog $2.6B mainly composed of large hyperscale liquid-cooling orders
• Key risks: Data center exposure is not pure (industrial ~44%); enclosure/PDU market is more fragmented than Vertiv’s liquid-cooling lane
• Catalysts: gray/white-space enclosure penetration; new capacity ramp

Quanta Services (PWR) — A 76/100

• Beneficiary chain: Largest specialty power contractor in the U.S. (EPC / transmission and distribution construction / substations)
• AI/DC revenue mix: Data center / communications / load centers account for roughly ~10% of backlog; Electric Infrastructure Solutions revenue $6.47B, 82% of total
• Latest financials: Revenue $7.87B (Q1 2026, 2026-04-30) | YoY +26% | Adj EBITDA $686.4M (margin ~8.7%) | record backlog $48.5B | FY2026 guidance $34.7–35.2B
• Valuation: PE-TTM 94.4 / fwd 49.5 / EV-EBITDA 40.35 / dividend yield 0.06% | Market cap $103B
• Bull case: Grid supercycle + record backlog + continued wins on large transmission lines
• Real orders: NiSource ~3 GW power generation + grid EPC; Grain Belt Express $1.7B; Xcel Colorado Power Pathway
• Key risks: fwd PE ~50 already priced in; thin EBITDA margin (~8.7%); labor shortages / wage inflation; rate-sensitive cyclical stock
• Catalysts: HVDC / high-capacity transmission buildout; AI DC grid-connection engineering

Hubbell (HUBB) — A 74/100

• Beneficiary chain: Transmission and distribution / utility meters / switchgear / modular PDU (PowerGain)
• AI/DC revenue mix: ~10% of Electrical Solutions (about ~4% of group revenue); Q1 2026 data center market YoY +~40%
• Latest financials: Revenue $1.5167B (Q1 2026, 2026-04-30) | YoY +11% (organic +8.2%) | Adj operating margin 19.8% | Adj EPS $3.93 (+16%) | 2026 guidance raised to +8–11%
• Valuation: PE-TTM 30.5 / fwd ~25 / EV-EBITDA 20.1 / dividend yield 1.08% | Market cap ~$27B
• Real orders: Serves AEP/Duke Energy, etc.; PowerGain PDU supports 200A/cabinet AI racks
• Key risks: Data centers account for only ~4% of group revenue (weak pure AI beta); Grid Automation segment contracting (-7%)
• Catalysts: Utility T&D capex cycle; modular power distribution

Powell Industries (POWL) — B 71/100

• Beneficiary chain: Custom power equipment (medium-voltage switchgear / substations / BTM on-site generation)
• AI/DC revenue mix: Q2 FY2026 recorded its largest order ever, >$400M (mega data center, BTM on-site generation)
• Latest financials: Revenue $296.6M (Q2 FY2026, 2026-05-04) | YoY +6% | gross margin 29.6% (+500bps YoY) | new orders $490M (+97%) | backlog $1.8B (+33% YoY)
• Valuation: PE-TTM 54.4 / fwd 43.1 / EV-EBITDA 41.5 / PEG 3.08 | Market cap $10.16B
• Bull case: BTM on-site generation penetration + mega order + margin improvement
• Real orders: Q2 mega data center >$400M (largest in company history, customer not named)
• Key risks: Extremely expensive valuation (PE 54 / EV-EBITDA 41 / PEG 3.08); revenue concentrated in a small number of mega orders; long project execution cycle
• Catalysts: BTM self-generation penetration; execution of mega orders

MasTec (MTZ) — B 70/100

• Beneficiary chain: Diversified infrastructure contractor (power transmission and distribution / clean-energy interconnection / data center CM)
• AI/DC revenue mix: Nearly $1B of data-center-related wins in Q1 2026; CE&I segment (including data centers) revenue $1.329B, ~35% of total (+45%)
• Latest financials: Revenue $3.829B (Q1 2026, 2026-04-30) | YoY +34% | record 18-month backlog $20.328B (+28%) | FY2026 guidance $17.5B
• Valuation: PE-TTM 69.4 / fwd 45.45 / EV-EBITDA 28.02 / dividend yield 0% | Market cap $31.3B
• Real orders: AWS Hamlet NC (with Walbridge); Microsoft campus (via Lemartec); CE&I backlog $7.279B (+65%)
• Key risks: Thin EBITDA margin (CE&I 6.7%); no direct hyperscaler contracts (weak subcontractor bargaining power); no dividend
• Catalysts: AI DC turnkey CM; Power Delivery 1.6x book-to-bill

3.4 Nuclear Power / Uranium / Natural Gas / Utilities / Energy

Vistra (VST) — S 84/100

• Beneficiary chain: The second-largest nuclear fleet in the U.S. + large natural-gas IPP + retail
• AI/DC relevance: Meta 20-year PPA >2.6GW (2.176GW operating + 433MW uprate) covering three PJM nuclear plants—Perry/Davis-Besse/Beaver Valley; signed on 2026-01-09; EBITDA contribution starts in 2027
• Latest financials: Revenue $5.64B (Q1 2026, 2026-05-07) | YoY +43% | Adjusted EBITDA $1.494B | 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance $6.8–7.6B | 2026 FCF guidance $3.925–4.725B
• Valuation: fwd PE 15–16 / EV-EBITDA 9.3–11 / dividend 0.56% | Market cap implied
• Beneficiary logic: Largest-ever nuclear uprate PPA + PJM capacity prices + natural-gas baseload
• Real orders: Meta written 20-year PPA >2.6GW (largest corporate nuclear uprate PPA in the U.S.)
• Key risks: Uprate project execution; Cogentrix acquisition closing and integration; 98% hedged for 2026 limits upside sensitivity to spot power prices
• Catalysts: Meta PPA monetization in 2027; delivery of the 433MW uprate

Constellation Energy (CEG) — S 82/100

• Beneficiary chain: Largest nuclear operator in the U.S. + entry into natural-gas/renewable IPP after the Calpine acquisition
• AI/DC relevance: Microsoft 20-year PPA ~835MW (Three Mile Island Crane restart, grid connection in 2027, DOE $1B loan); PUCT approved CyrusOne/Freestone co-location 380MW + 380MW Phase II >1.1GW in 2026-02
• Latest financials: Revenue $11.12B (Q1 2026, 2026-05-11) | YoY +64% (Calpine consolidated) | GAAP net income $1.59B | Adjusted EPS $2.74 | Nuclear output 44,666GWh, capacity factor 94.1% | 2026 EPS guidance $11–12
• Valuation: PE 22.9 / EV-EBITDA 13.2–14.6 / dividend 0.65%
• Beneficiary logic: Long-term PPA contracts + nuclear PTC + PJM capacity prices + TMI restart valuation re-rating
• Real orders: Microsoft 20-year VPPA 835MW (written); DOE $1B loan closed; Freestone PUCT order
• Key risks: TMI restart licensing/NRC Amendment delays; Microsoft PPA does not contribute revenue before 2027
• Catalysts: TMI grid connection in 2027; Freestone Phase II ramp-up

NextEra Energy (NEE) — S 82/100

• Beneficiary chain: World’s largest wind/solar generator + largest regulated utility in the U.S. (FPL) + storage
• AI/DC relevance: 30+ data-center hubs (target ~40); NEER renewable + storage backlog ~33GW; U.S. Department of Commerce selected 9.5GW of gas-fired power tied to U.S.-Japan trade
• Latest financials: Revenue $6.701B (Q1 2026, 2026-04-23) | +7.3% | Adjusted EPS $1.09 (+10%) | FPL net income $1.462B (rate base ~$77.7B, +8.8%) | 2026 EPS guidance $3.92–4.02; 8%+ CAGR through 2032/2035
• Valuation: PE 22.5 / fwd ~22 / EV-EBITDA 18–20 / dividend 2.81%
• Beneficiary logic: Regulated rate-base growth + long-term PPA backlog + data-center load
• Real orders: Backlog ~33GW (written); 9.5GW gas-fired power selected by Department of Commerce; FPL rate base
• Key risks: Rate sensitivity (high PE); regulation; renewable grid-connection delays
• Catalysts: Grid connection of 33GW backlog; FPL rate-base growth

Southern Company (SO) — S 81/100

• Beneficiary chain: Large U.S. regulated utility + the only newly built nuclear units in the U.S. (Vogtle 3&4 AP1000)
• AI/DC relevance: Georgia PSC approved ~9,985MW of new generation in 2025-12 (mainly gas-fired) to serve data centers; Q1 data-center electricity use +42% YoY; 28 large-load projects signed for 11GW
• Latest financials: Revenue $8.4B (Q1 2026, 2026-04-30) | +8% | Adjusted EPS $1.32 | Net income $1.356B (+1.6%)
• Valuation: PE 24.85 / EV-EBITDA 12.71 / dividend 3.13% | Market cap $109.5B
• Beneficiary logic: Exclusive exposure to newly built nuclear via Vogtle + data-center load + upfront customer payments protecting rates
• Real orders: 28 large-load projects totaling 11GW; Georgia PSC order for 9,985MW; Vogtle 3&4 in operation
• Key risks: Execution/rates for 9.9GW of new build; high cost benchmark for new nuclear; rate sensitivity
• Catalysts: Grid connection of 11GW large-load projects; Vogtle 1-2 uprate ~112MW

Williams (WMB) — S 83/100

• Beneficiary chain: Largest interstate natural-gas pipeline in the U.S. (Transco) + Gulf of Mexico deepwater gathering
• AI/DC relevance: Atlas (164 MMcf/d supply to a large data center in the Northeast, in service by end-2026); Project NEO (682MW behind-the-meter, H2 2028); SSE (~1.6 MDth/d Transco expansion, $1.2B, Q3 2027)
• Latest financials: Revenue $3.03B (Q1 2026, 2026-05-04) | -0.6% | Adjusted EPS $0.73 (beat) | Adjusted EBITDA $2.254B (+13%, record) | 2026 EBITDA guidance $8.05–8.35B
• Valuation: PE 32–34 / fwd 32–33 / EV-EBITDA 15.8–18 / dividend 2.7–2.8%
• Beneficiary logic: Long-term contracted Transco expansions + data centers switching backup diesel to gas + new Gulf of Mexico gas fields
• Real orders: Written projects and long-term contracts for Atlas/NEO/SSE/Power Express; Transco expansion FERC approval
• Key risks: Expensive valuation (PE >32x); FERC regulation; data-center load growth below expectations
• Catalysts: Atlas/NEO/SSE in-service; Gulf of Mexico gas fields

Kinder Morgan (KMI) — S 81/100

• Beneficiary chain: One of the largest natural-gas pipeline networks in the U.S. + LNG export pipelines + gathering/midstream
• AI/DC relevance: Project backlog $10.1B; ~92% natural-gas projects, ~60% supporting power generation/LDCs (including data-center-related projects such as Creekside Lateral); long-term contracts of ~7–12 Bcf/d supplying LNG facilities
• Latest financials: Revenue $4.83B (Q1 2026, 2026-04-22) | +13.8% | Adjusted EPS $0.48 (+41%, beat) | Adjusted EBITDA $2.539B (+18%) | Transport volumes 49,475 MMcf/d (+8%)
• Valuation: PE 22 / fwd ~23 / EV-EBITDA 13–14 / dividend 3.6%
• Beneficiary logic: Long-term contracted pipeline transportation + LNG export growth + data-center gas-fired power
• Real orders: Backlog $10.1B (written, 92% gas); long-term contracts 7–12 Bcf/d
• Key risks: Moderate growth (+5% EPS); LNG export policy; FERC
• Catalysts: $10.1B backlog entering service; incremental LNG exports

Cheniere Energy (LNG) — S 82/100

• Beneficiary chain: Largest LNG exporter in the U.S. (Sabine Pass ~30mtpa + Corpus Christi Stage 3 ~25+ mtpa)
• AI/DC relevance: Indirect (LNG supplies overseas baseload/gas-fired power); Q1 exports reached a record 187 cargoes
• Latest financials: Revenue $5.87B (Q1 2026, 2026-05-07) | +8% | Adjusted EBITDA $2.33B (+25%) | DCF $1.67B (+31%) | 2026 EBITDA guidance raised to $7.25–7.75B
• Valuation: fwd PE 16–17 / EV-EBITDA 12.5–14 / dividend 0.94%
• Beneficiary logic: Long-term LNG SPAs + export volume ramp + CCL Stage 3 completion (97%)
• Real orders: Long-term SPAs (fixed fees + Henry Hub-linked); record 187 Q1 cargoes; CCL Stage 3 97% complete
• Key risks: International gas-price volatility causing large non-cash fair-value gains/losses on IPM derivatives (distorting quarterly EPS); LNG export policy/tariffs
• Catalysts: CCL Stage 3 Train 5 in service; Midscale Trains 8-9

Talen Energy (TLN) — A 74/100

• Beneficiary chain: PJM nuclear + natural-gas IPP + Susquehanna nuclear co-located data center
• AI/DC relevance: AWS expansion to 1,920MW (front-of-meter, signed 2025-06-11, through 2042+, ramping to 1,680–1,920MW before 2032, nominal revenue ~$18B)
• Latest financials: Revenue $1.13B (Q1 2026, 2026-05-05) | YoY +189% | Adjusted EBITDA $473M | 2026 EBITDA guidance $1.75–2.05B
• Valuation: PE high/NA / EV-EBITDA 26–31 / dividend 0%
• Beneficiary logic: Ultra-long PPA lock-in + co-location premium + de-risked front-end model
• Real orders: AWS 1.92GW PPA through 2042 (written, $18B nominal)
• Key risks: Single-customer concentration with AWS; high leverage; EV-EBITDA 26–31x already prices in a lot
• Catalysts: AWS PPA ramp before 2032; Cornerstone acquisition

Cameco (CCJ) — A 72/100

• Beneficiary chain: Largest Western uranium miner globally + Westinghouse nuclear technology services + JV Inkai (Kazakhstan 40%)
• AI/DC relevance: Indirect (uranium supply for nuclear power); contracted deliveries >28M lb/year for 2026–2030
• Latest financials: Revenue ~C$607M (Q1 2026, 2026-05-05) | Uranium sales 7.8M lb (+13% YoY) | Realized price ~$65.45/lb | Adjusted EBITDA C$509M | 2026 uranium production guidance 19.5–21.5M lb (equity share)
• Valuation: PE 82–100 / fwd 71–86 / EV-EBITDA 53–71 / dividend 0.16%
• Beneficiary logic: Russian uranium ban (full ban in 2028) + nuclear revival long-term contracts + price increases
• Real orders: Long-term contracts >28M lb/year for 2026–2030; inventory 9.1M lb@$50.24
• Key risks: Extremely expensive valuation (PE >80x); geopolitical risk in Kazakhstan JV; realized prices lag spot
• Catalysts: Higher uranium spot/contract prices; Russian uranium ban in 2028

Centrus Energy (LEU) — B 69/100

• Beneficiary chain: Only U.S. commercial HALEU producer (Piketon centrifuges) + LEU sales
• AI/DC relevance: Signed LOI with Oklo to supply five Aurora units starting in 2029; DOE HALEU contract Phase III extended to 2026-06-30
• Latest financials: Revenue $76.7M (Q1 2026, 2026-05-05) | +5% YoY | Adjusted net income $23.5M | Backlog $3.9B through 2040
• Valuation: PE ~20x (adjusted) / dividend 0%
• Beneficiary logic: Russian uranium ban + HALEU exclusivity + positioning in SMR fuel
• Real orders: Backlog $3.9B (through 2040); Oklo LOI; DOE Phase III
• Key risks: Small revenue base ($76.7M/quarter); centrifuge capacity expansion execution; timing mismatch for HALEU demand
• Catalysts: Centrifuge capacity expansion ($350–500M); HALEU commercialization

Oklo (OKLO) — B Optionality/Watch 47/100

• Beneficiary chain: Sodium-cooled fast-reactor SMR (Aurora 75MWe) + fuel recycling
• AI/DC relevance: Meta binding agreement for a 1.2GW Aurora campus (Pike County, Ohio, 2026-01-09), Meta prepayment, first phase targeting grid connection in 2030; Aurora-INL first reactor targeted for 2028
• Latest financials: Revenue $0 (Q1 2026) | Net loss $33.1M | Liquidity $2.54B (including equity financing)
• Valuation: PE NA (loss-making) | dividend 0%
• Beneficiary logic: SMR commercialization + Meta prepayment + HALEU supply (Centrus LOI) + Kiewit EPC MOU
• Real orders: Meta 1.2GW binding agreement (written + prepayment); Centrus LOI; Kiewit MOU
• Key risks: Pre-revenue, NRC license not yet secured, first power in 2030 still carries execution/technical risk, entirely reliant on financing
• Catalysts: NRC licensing progress; Aurora-INL 2028

NuScale Power (SMR) — B Watch 50/100

• Beneficiary chain: Only light-water SMR with NRC design certification (77MWe NPM, 2025-05 SDA)
• AI/DC relevance: No direct AI PPA; Romania RoPower 462MW (6 modules) FID in 2026-02
• Latest financials: Revenue $0.6M (Q1 2026) | YoY -95.5% | Net loss $44M | Liquidity $1.0B
• Valuation: PE NA / dividend 0%
• Key risks: Prior UAMPS U.S. project was canceled in 2023; revenue near zero; commercial operation 2033+; no direct AI PPA
• Catalysts: RoPower first module; new PPA/customers

3.5 Hyperscale Cloud / IDC REIT / Compute Cloud

Microsoft (MSFT) — S 85/100

• Beneficiary chain: World’s second-largest public cloud (Azure) + full-stack AI (Copilot / exclusive compute for OpenAI) + SaaS
• AI/cloud revenue share: Microsoft Cloud $54.5B / total $82.9B = 65.7%; Azure $34.7B = 41.9%
• Latest financials: Revenue $82.9B (FY26 Q3, as of 2026-03-31, 2026-04-29) | YoY +18% (cc +15%) | Azure +40% | Q3 capex $31.9B; FY26 full-year capex ~$190B | Q4 guidance: revenue $86.7–87.8B, Azure +39–40% cc
• Valuation: PE 22.21 / fwd 19.19 / EV-EBITDA 13.82 / dividend yield 0.98%
• Beneficiary logic: Capex-driven (own $190B) + fulfillment of Azure +40% orders + AI gross margin expansion (MS Cloud gross margin 66%)
• Real orders: Own FY26 capex guidance of $190B; Q4 Azure +39–40% cc; OpenAI partnership
• Key risks: Surging capex intensity pressures FCF; GPU/memory price increases erode gross margin by $25B; capacity bottlenecks persist throughout 2026
• Catalysts: Azure AI net retention rate; realization of OpenAI compute consumption

Alphabet (GOOGL) — S 83/100

• Beneficiary chain: Third-largest public cloud (GCP) + search/advertising + in-house TPU + Gemini
• AI/cloud revenue share: Google Cloud $20.0B / total $109.9B = 18.2%
• Latest financials: Revenue $109.9B (Q1 2026, 2026-04-29) | YoY +22% (cc +19%) | Cloud $20.0B (+63%); Cloud profit $6.6B (margin 32.9%, vs. 17.8% last year) | Q1 capex $35.7B (+107% YoY) | 2026 capex guidance $180–190B; 2027 “significant growth”
• Valuation: PE 25.74 / fwd 23.92 / EV-EBITDA 18.58 / dividend yield 0.26%
• Beneficiary logic: Cloud surpasses $20B for the first time (+63%) + operating profit $6.6B + $460B backlog + cost reduction via in-house TPU
• Real orders: Cloud backlog ~$460–462B (nearly doubled QoQ); 2026 capex guidance $180–190B
• Key risks: Search antitrust (DOJ remedies); capex $180–190B with further increases in 2027; core advertising business diverted by AI search
• Catalysts: Continued Cloud margin expansion; TPU cost reduction; enterprise deployment of Gemini

Meta (META) — S 81/100

• Beneficiary chain: Social advertising monopoly + open-source Llama + AI glasses + in-house MTIA chip
• AI/cloud revenue share: No direct AI/cloud revenue line; advertising $55.0B (+33%), with AI driving impressions +19% / price per ad +12%
• Latest financials: Revenue $56.31B (Q1 2026, 2026-04-29) | YoY +33% (cc +29%) | Net income $26.77B (including $8.03B tax benefit; adjusted EPS $7.31) | FCF $12.4B; cash $81.2B | 2026 capex guidance raised to $125–145B
• Valuation: PE 20.00 / EV-EBITDA 12.83 / dividend yield 0.38%
• Beneficiary logic: AI improves recommendation/ad monetization + open-source ecosystem moat + capex $125–145B
• Real orders: Capex guidance $125–145B; supported by FCF $12.4B; cash $81.2B
• Key risks: Capex surges without a new monetized revenue line; Reality Labs continues to lose money; AI glasses not yet profitable
• Catalysts: AI ad monetization ROAS; AI glasses volume ramp; Llama commercialization

Amazon (AMZN) — A 78/100

• Beneficiary chain: World’s largest cloud (AWS) + e-commerce/logistics + in-house Trainium/Inferentia
• AI/cloud revenue share: AWS $37.6B / total $181.5B = 20.7%; AWS AI run rate >$15B (about 10% of AWS)
• Latest financials: Revenue $181.5B (Q1 2026, 2026-04-29) | YoY +17% | AWS $37.6B (+28%, fastest in 15 quarters); AWS profit $14.2B | Total operating income $23.9B (margin 13.1%, a record high) | Q1 capex ~$44.2B; TTM FCF plunged to $1.2B | 2026 capex guidance ~$200B
• Valuation: PE 31.60 / fwd 31.15 / EV-EBITDA 15.43 / dividend yield 0%
• Beneficiary logic: AWS backlog $364B + Trainium commitments $225B + OpenAI $138B / 8-year exclusive agreement
• Real orders: OpenAI agreement $138B (2GW Trainium3/4, starting 2027); Amazon $50B investment in OpenAI; Trainium revenue commitments $225B+
• Key risks: TTM FCF collapsed to $1.2B (consumed by capex); execution of $200B capex; uncertainty around Trainium replacing Nvidia
• Catalysts: Execution of OpenAI agreement; Trainium3/4 volume ramp

Oracle (ORCL) — A 78/100

• Beneficiary chain: Database leader + OCI (IaaS) + SaaS (Cerner/Fusion)
• AI/cloud revenue share: Cloud $34.0B / FY26 total $67.4B = 50.4%; OCI (IaaS) $18.1B = 26.9%
• Latest financials: FY26 full-year revenue $67.4B, Cloud $34.0B, OCI $18.1B (+84%); Q3 (as of 2026-02-28) revenue $17.2B (+22%) | RPO reached a record $553B (+325% YoY, AI-driven) | FY26 capex $50B
• Valuation: PE 25.48 / EV-EBITDA 16.66 / dividend yield 1.33%
• Beneficiary logic: RPO $553B + OCI +84% high growth + multi-cloud/sovereign cloud
• Real orders: RPO $553B (+325%); FY26 capex $50B
• Key risks: High leverage (Cerner legacy); execution pressure on $50B capex; uncertain pace of RPO conversion into revenue
• Catalysts: Speed of conversion of $553B RPO; OCI margin improvement

Digital Realty (DLR) — A 78/100

• Beneficiary chain: World’s second-largest IDC REIT + hyperscale wholesale
• AI/DC revenue share: 100% (data centers)
• Latest financials: Revenue $1.6B (Q1 2026, 2026-04-23) | YoY +16% | Core FFO $2.04/sh (+15%) | Leases $707M annualized; backlog $1.8B | 1.2GW under construction, 61% pre-leased | Net debt/EBITDA 4.7x | 2026 guidance raised: Core FFO $8.00–8.10/sh; capex raised to $3.5–4.0B
• Valuation: PE 51.33 / EV-EBITDA 22.34 / dividend yield 2.53%
• Beneficiary logic: Largest hyperscale lease in company history + 1.2GW under construction, 61% pre-leased, 11.4% yield
• Real orders: Largest hyperscale lease in company history; 2026 capex $3.5–4B; 1.2GW 61% pre-leased
• Key risks: Execution of capex $3.5–4B; power constraints; high leverage ($18B debt)
• Catalysts: Delivery and pre-lease rate of the 1.2GW pipeline; AI-driven rental premium

Equinix (EQIX) — A 75/100

• Beneficiary chain: World’s largest IDC REIT (interconnection ecosystem) + xScale hyperscale wholesale
• AI/DC revenue share: 100%
• Latest financials: Revenue $2.444B (Q1 2026, 2026-04-29) | YoY +10% (cc +8%) | AFFO $1.065B (+12%, surpassed $1B for the first time) | Adj EBITDA $1.245B (51%, +17%) | 2026 guidance raised: revenue $10.14–10.24B, AFFO $4.198–4.278B; capex ~$4.1B
• Valuation: PE 75.21 / EV-EBITDA 29.96 / dividend yield 1.81%
• Beneficiary logic: Power constraints limit new supply → high occupancy + price increases; xScale captures hyperscale wholesale demand
• Real orders: 2026 capex $4.1B (46 retail expansions + xScale projects); AFFO surpassed $1B for the first time
• Key risks: Elevated valuation (PE 75 / EV-EBITDA 30); power/site permitting constraints; execution risk across 46 projects under construction
• Catalysts: Power procurement determining expansion pace; xScale hyperscale pre-leasing

American Tower (AMT) — A 75/100

• Beneficiary chain: Global communications tower REIT + CoreSite data centers (edge/hybrid cloud)
• AI/cloud revenue share: Data centers (CoreSite) ~6–7% of property revenue (but high growth at +18.4%)
• Latest financials: Revenue $2.738B (Q1 2026, 2026-04-28) | +6.8% | Property revenue $2.670B (+7.3%); data centers +18.4% | Adj EBITDA $1.835B (+5.2%) | AFFO/share $2.84 (+3.3%)
• Valuation: PE 28.33 / fwd 27.34 / EV-EBITDA 17.72 / dividend yield 4.08%
• Beneficiary logic: Structural data center growth of +18.4% + stable cash flow from tower business + high dividend yield of 4.08%
• Key risks: DISH churn; rate sensitivity; small data center mix limits AI upside; AFFO growth only 2.6%
• Catalysts: CoreSite data center expansion; falling interest rates

CoreWeave (CRWV) — Risk Alert 65/100

• Beneficiary chain: Pure-play AI compute cloud (core NVIDIA partner, among the first for GB200 inference) + GPU leasing
• AI/DC revenue share: 100%
• Latest financials: Revenue $2.078B (Q1 2026, 2026-05-07) | YoY +112% | Adjusted EBITDA $1.157B (+91%, margin 56%, compressed from 62%) | Adjusted net loss $589M (28%, loss widened) | Backlog $99.4B (+284%) | FY26 guidance: revenue $12–13B, capex $31–35B
• Valuation: PE N/A (loss-making) / EV-EBITDA 27.99 / EV/Revenue 13.74 / dividend yield 0%
• Real orders: Backlog $99.4B (Meta $21B commitment / Anthropic multi-year); FY26 capex $31–35B; among the first NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud partners
• Key risks: Widening net loss / EBITDA margin compression; customer concentration (a handful of AI labs); GPU depreciation and replacement-cycle risk; high-leverage capex of $31–35B
• Catalysts: Backlog conversion; GB300 NVL72 inference volume ramp

Crown Castle (CCI) — Risk Alert 58/100

• Beneficiary chain: U.S. communications tower REIT (divested fiber/small cells, refocused on towers)
• AI/cloud revenue share: Data center-related ≈0% (fiber/small cells sold to Zayo/EQT, closed 2026-05-01 for $8.5B)
• Latest financials: Site rental revenue $961M (Q1 2026, 2026-04-22, continuing operations basis) | YoY -4.9% | AFFO $446M (-7%) | Organic growth +3.3% | Dividend $4.25/year (5.14%, highest)
• Valuation: PE 34.86 / fwd 34.31 / EV-EBITDA 24.51 / dividend yield 5.14%
• Key risks: Weakest AI/data center exposure (theme mismatch); revenue/AFFO down YoY; ongoing DISH churn + Sprint cancellations; valuation still expensive despite low growth
• Catalysts: Deleveraging + buybacks funded by sale proceeds; pure-play tower organic growth

Part IV: A-Share Target Research

4.1 Optical Modules / PCB / Servers / Liquid Cooling / Domestic Compute Chips

Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138) — S 84/100

• Beneficiary chain: Global leader in AI server ODM + cloud computing
• AI/DC revenue mix: Cloud computing revenue of RMB 602.679bn accounted for 66.75% of total revenue, with AI server revenue up more than 3x YoY
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 902.887bn (2025 annual report, +48.22%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 35.286bn (+51.99%) | Gross margin 6.98% (-0.3pct) | Dividend payout ratio 55.12%
• Valuation: PE-TTM 34.28 / Market cap ~RMB 1.38tn (2026-06-26)
• Beneficiary logic: Core ODM for NVIDIA GB200/GB300 + 40%+ global market share in AI server ODM + scale
• Actual orders: Key capacity provider for NVIDIA GB series; 40%+ global market share in AI server ODM
• Key risks: ODM gross margin only 7% / net margin 3.9%, indicating weak bargaining power; NVIDIA lock-in = direct export-control risk
• Catalysts: GB300 / next-generation ODM share, ASIC solutions

Zhongji Innolight (300308) — S 81/100

• Beneficiary chain: Clear global leader in optical modules (800G/1.6T)
• AI/DC revenue mix: High-speed optical modules (800G/1.6T, directly supplying AI compute) are the main growth driver; overseas revenue 90%+
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 38.240bn (2025 annual report, +60.25%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 10.797bn (+108.78%) | Optical-module gross margin 42.61% (+7.96pct) | Q1'26 net profit RMB 5.7bn, +262%
• Valuation: PE-TTM 93.54 / 2026E forward PE 61.16 / PB 39.15 / Market cap ~RMB 1.40tn
• Beneficiary logic: Orders + price increases (rising high-end mix) + 1.6T volume production + economies of scale
• Actual orders: 40%+ global share in 800G and 50–70% share in 1.6T (Omdia); construction in progress surged 1765.65% for capacity expansion
• Key risks: Escalation of export controls (most sensitive given 90% overseas revenue); valuation at historically extreme levels with PE 93/PB 39; customer concentration (CSP giants)
• Catalysts: 1.6T ramp pace and yield, penetration of silicon photonics/CPO

Huadian Electronics (002463) — A 81/100

• Beneficiary chain: High-end, high-speed PCB (data-communication switches / AI servers)
• AI/DC revenue mix: Data-communication PCB revenue RMB 14.656bn (+45.21%), accounting for ~81% of PCB revenue
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 18.945bn (2025, +42.00%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 3.822bn (+47.74%) | PCB gross margin 36.91% (+1.06pct, data-communication 39.68%)
• Valuation: PE-TTM 65.88 / Market cap ~RMB 283.4bn
• Beneficiary logic: Orders + price increases (high-end product mix) + yield >90%
• Actual orders: 38–46-layer high-end PCBs delivered in volume for 800G switches, yield >90%
• Key risks: PCB cyclicality + large capex; indirect impact from export controls; PE 66 is on the expensive side
• Catalysts: Volume ramp of 800G/1.6T switch PCBs, ASIC wave

Shenghung Technology (300476) — A 80/100

• Beneficiary chain: HDI / high-layer-count PCB (AI servers/HPC)
• AI/DC revenue mix: AI+HPC contribution 32%+; HDI contribution 38.5% (+24.3pct)
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 19.292bn (2025, +79.77%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 4.312bn (+273.52%) | Gross margin 35.22% (+12.5pct) | Net margin 22.35% (+11.59pct)
• Valuation: PE-TTM 67.11 / Market cap ~RMB 314.0bn; research reports imply 2026–27E PE of 25x/14x
• Beneficiary logic: Orders (entered NVDA/AMD/Intel chains) + price increases (HDI gross margin 43.5%) + capacity
• Actual orders: Has entered NVIDIA/AMD/Intel supply chains
• Key risks: Indirect export-control impact on the NVIDIA chain; customer concentration; rising inventory
• Catalysts: AI server PCB share, NVIDIA GB series orders

Eoptolink (300502) — A 79/100

• Beneficiary chain: Second pillar in optical modules, among the first to mass-produce 1.6T
• AI/DC revenue mix: Optical interconnect products accounted for 99.7% of revenue (RMB 24.77bn)
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 24.842bn (2025, +187.29%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 9.532bn (+235.89%) | Gross margin 47.81% (+2.96pct) | Sales volume 16.03mn units (+82.78%)
• Valuation: PE-TTM 73.48 / Market cap RMB 789.1bn
• Beneficiary logic: Volume shipments of 1.6T DR4 (among the world’s first batches) + price increases from high-end mix
• Actual orders: Volume shipments of 1.6T DR4
• Key risks: Smaller scale than Zhongji Innolight, implying weaker risk resilience; export controls; high customer concentration; R&D expense ratio of 2.83% is relatively low
• Catalysts: 1.6T ramp share, LPO/CPO/thin-film lithium niobate routes

TFC (300394) — A/Risk Watch 77/100

• Beneficiary chain: Platform-type optical components (passive + active optical engines)
• AI/DC revenue mix: Active optical engines RMB 2.998bn, accounting for 58.06%, +81.11%; exports 74%
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 5.163bn (2025, +58.79%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 2.017bn (+50.15%) | Gross margin 53.96% (-3.26pct)
• Valuation: PE-TTM 159.72 / Market cap RMB 346.882bn
• Beneficiary logic: Platform positioning + deep customer lock-in + Thailand/Jiangxi bases
• Actual orders: Active revenue +81%, exceeding expectations; Thailand/Jiangxi bases commenced production
• Key risks: Gross margin continues to decline (rising active mix is dilutive); PE-TTM 160 is extremely expensive
• Catalysts: 1.6T optical-engine volume ramp, passive high-margin business as ballast

Sugon (603019) — A 76/100

• Beneficiary chain: High-end computing + liquid cooling + intelligent computing (Chinese Academy of Sciences system)
• AI/DC revenue mix: Not separately disclosed; liquid-cooling market share 60%+; 28% stake in Hygon
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 14.964bn (2025, +13.81%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 2.176bn | Gross margin 30.58% (+1.42pct) | R&D expense ratio 11.17% (+29%); Q1'26 revenue +24%
• Valuation: PE-TTM ~65 / Market cap ~RMB 144.5bn
• Beneficiary logic: Domestic substitution + intelligent-computing center orders + Hygon ecosystem
• Actual orders: Liquid-cooling market share 60%+; Hygon Information 2025 revenue RMB 14.377bn (+56.92%) provides ecosystem support
• Key risks: Revenue growth of only 14%, slower than pure AI names; reliance on Hygon; PE 65 is on the expensive side; historical inclusion on the Entity List
• Catalysts: Supernode scaleX640 / 10,000-card clusters, Hygon DCU volume ramp

Inspur Information (000977) — A 74/100

• Beneficiary chain: Domestic server leader (AI + liquid cooling)
• AI/DC revenue mix: Servers accounted for 93.82% of revenue (RMB 154.605bn); 50%+ domestic market share in AI servers; 35%+ global market share in liquid cooling
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 164.782bn (2025, +43.25%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 2.413bn (only +5.2%) | Gross margin 4.77% (record low) | Inventory RMB 46.5bn + impairment RMB 1.3bn
• Valuation: PE-TTM ~39 / Market cap ~RMB 97.2bn
• Beneficiary logic: Domestic CSP / intelligent-computing center orders + domestic substitution + high-margin liquid cooling
• Actual orders: No.1 domestically in AI servers (IDC); No.1 domestically in liquid cooling for four consecutive years; >100kW per rack
• Key risks: Revenue growth without profit growth (revenue +43% but net profit only +5.2%); gross margin of 4.77% is the lowest in the entire group; inventory of RMB 46.5bn carries impairment risk; upstream chip dependence
• Catalysts: Higher liquid-cooling contribution (gross margin >40%) repairing profitability, domestic chip adaptation

Envicool (002837) — Risk Watch 70/100

• Beneficiary chain: Full-chain data-center liquid cooling + server-room thermal control
• AI/DC revenue mix: Server-room thermal-control revenue RMB 3.448bn (+41.28%); cumulative liquid-cooling deliveries 1.2GW+
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 6.068bn (2025, +32.23%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 522mn (+15.3%) | Gross margin 28.36% (slight decline, overseas 52.64%)
• Valuation: PE-TTM ~218 / Market cap ~RMB 105.2bn
• Beneficiary logic: Entry into NVIDIA GB300 ecosystem + Zhongshan/Zhengzhou/Thailand/US bases + liquid-cooling penetration
• Actual orders: Entered NVIDIA GB200/GB300/MGX ecosystem + Intel Eagle Stream design guide; cumulative deliveries 1.2GW+
• Key risks: PE 218 is extremely expensive (RMB 105.2bn market cap / RMB 500mn profit); sharp Q1 net-profit decline; intensifying liquid-cooling competition; export risk from NVIDIA chain
• Catalysts: GB300 liquid-cooled rack orders (won 1,200 units in 2025Q3), overseas volume ramp

Cambricon (688256) — Upside/Risk Watch 69/100

• Beneficiary chain: First domestic AI GPU stock (independent chips)
• AI/DC revenue mix: Cloud product line (Siyuan series) accounted for 99.69%
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 6.497bn (2025, +453.21%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 2.059bn (turned profitable, +555.24%) | Gross margin 55.15% (-1.56pct)
• Valuation: PE-TTM 337.16 / Static 444.85 / Market cap RMB 916.051bn
• Beneficiary logic: Domestic substitution (policy-driven necessity) + internet / intelligent-computing orders + valuation rerating
• Actual orders: Nearly 100,000 chips shipped in 2025; turned profitable; cloud product line exploded
• Key risks: PE 337 is extremely bubbly (RMB 900bn market cap / RMB 2bn profit); process dependence on TSMC subject to export controls; HBM is the bottleneck; fragile ecosystem
• Catalysts: 2026 target of 500,000 chips, process breakthroughs, HBM access

Oclaro Technology (002281) — Risk Watch 69/100

• Beneficiary chain: Domestic optical chips + vertically integrated optical modules (central SOE)
• AI/DC revenue mix: Data and access business RMB 8.463bn, accounting for 70.94%, gross margin 21.85%
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 11.929bn (2025, +44.20%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 946mn (+43.1%) | Gross margin ~23.31% (low) | R&D expense ratio 9.52%
• Valuation: PE-TTM 191.97 / Market cap RMB 198.897bn
• Beneficiary logic: Domestic substitution (self-developed optical chips) + 800G orders + capacity
• Actual orders: Commercialized 800G <14.5W; No.4 globally in data-communication optical components (Omdia, 5.9%)
• Key risks: Gross margin of 23% is the lowest in the entire group; PE 192 is extremely expensive; weak profitability
• Catalysts: Full-series 800G mass production, 1.6T/CPO pre-research

Hygon Information (688041) — Risk Watch 68/100

• Beneficiary chain: Dual engines of domestic CPU + DCU (coprocessor)
• AI/DC revenue mix: Not separately disclosed; dual drivers of CPU (information-technology application innovation) + DCU (AI training/inference, commercialization of Shensuan No.3)
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 14.377bn (2025, +56.92%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 2.545bn (+31.79%) | Gross margin 57.83% (-5.89pct); Q1'26 revenue +68%
• Valuation: PE-TTM 294.03 / Market cap RMB 801.664bn
• Beneficiary logic: Domestic substitution (x86 compatible / CUDA compatible) + orders from major internet companies / cloud vendors
• Actual orders: DCU commercialization (Shensuan No.3); Q1'26 revenue +68% acceleration
• Key risks: PE 294 is extremely bubbly (RMB 800bn / RMB 2.5bn profit); gross margin down 5.9pct (revenue growth > profit growth); AMD x86 licensing risk; HBM/process constraints
• Catalysts: Accelerating DCU shipments, next-generation Shensuan

Gaolan (300499) — Risk Watch 59/100

• Beneficiary chain: Liquid-cooling components + new-energy thermal management (small scale)
• AI/DC revenue mix: Liquid-cooled data-center H1 revenue RMB 137mn, accounting for 32.78%; overseas liquid-cooling components +239.47%
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 989mn (2025, +43.09%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 28mn (turned profitable)
• Valuation: PE-TTM ~401 / Market cap ~RMB 12.26bn
• Actual orders: Tied to NVIDIA’s full liquid-cooling platform; overseas liquid-cooling components +239%
• Key risks: PE 401 is extremely bubbly (RMB 12.2bn / RMB 28mn profit); small scale and weak risk resilience; extremely thin profits; fierce liquid-cooling competition
• Catalysts: Volume ramp of high-power AI liquid cooling, NVIDIA supply chain

4.2 Power Equipment / UHV / Transformers / Energy Storage / Industrial Automation

NARI Technology (600406) — S 88/100

• Beneficiary chain: The undisputed leader in secondary power-grid equipment (dispatch automation / relay protection / flexible DC converter valves / energy-storage converters)
• AI/DC revenue share: As of 2025H1, data-center-related order backlog exceeded RMB 3bn (28% of new orders); smart-grid business RMB 33.422bn (+15.73%)
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 66.229bn (2025, +14.53%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 8.279bn (+8.79%) | Newly signed contracts RMB 75.868bn (+14.40%) | Order backlog RMB 52.031bn | Overseas revenue RMB 6.038bn (+84.13%)
• Valuation: PE ~22.0 / Market cap ~RMB 182.6bn
• Investment logic: Orders + barriers to entry (flexible DC converter valve market share >50%) + import substitution + overseas expansion
• Real orders: Mengxi–Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei UHV DC; batch orders for flexible DC converter valves in Saudi Arabia/Indonesia; CGN Ruoqiang/Luopu energy storage
• Key risks: Dependence on State Grid’s intra-grid business (intra-grid accounts for 63%); project revenue-recognition cadence; gross margin -2.79pct
• Catalysts: Average annual grid investment of RMB 800bn+ during the “15th Five-Year Plan”; volume ramp in flexible DC and grid-forming energy storage

Sungrow Power Supply (300274) — A Elasticity 88/100

• Beneficiary chain: Global No.1 in PV inverters + global No.1 in energy-storage systems
• AI/DC revenue share: Energy storage revenue RMB 37.287bn (41.81% of total, +49.39%), with overseas contributing 80%+; AIDC power-supply products to launch in 2026
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 89.184bn (2025, +14.55%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 13.461bn (+21.97%) | Gross margin 31.83% (+1.89pct) | Energy-storage shipments 43GWh (+54%) | Operating cash flow +1133%
• Valuation: PE ~20 (2025A) / 2026E ~18 / 2027E ~14.4
• Investment logic: Orders + overseas expansion + price increases (energy-storage gross margin high at 36.49%)
• Real orders: Overseas energy-storage orders 36GWh (+90%); 21% market share in Europe, ranking No.1 globally; No.1 globally by PV inverter shipments
• Key risks: Q4 sequential decline; overseas trade policy (50GW inverter capacity overseas); energy-storage price competition
• Catalysts: Global ramp-up in energy storage; AIDC power-supply / green-power bundled solutions

CATL (300750) — A Elasticity 88/100

• Beneficiary chain: Global dual leader in power batteries + energy-storage batteries
• AI/DC revenue share: Energy-storage revenue RMB 62.44bn (+9%), shipments 121GWh (+29%); US$1bn investment in VNET to form a closed loop of “battery–energy storage–data center”
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 423.702bn (2025, +17.04%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 72.201bn (+42.28%) | Gross margin 26.27% (+1.83pct) | Energy-storage gross margin 26.71% | Overseas share 30.6%
• Valuation: PE ~21.7–24.9 (dynamic) / 2026E ~17–18 / Market cap ~RMB 1.81tn
• Investment logic: Orders + overseas expansion + barriers to entry (global power-battery market share 39.2%, global energy-storage share >40%)
• Real orders: UAE 19GWh integrated PV-storage project; 70+ energy-storage system integration deliveries (+160%)
• Key risks: Overseas trade policy (US/EU); metal price volatility; slowing demand for power batteries
• Catalysts: Rigid AIDC demand for energy storage (attachment ratio >30%); sodium-ion deployment for AIDC

TBever Electric (600089) — S 86/100

• Beneficiary chain: Leader across the full power transmission and transformation industry chain (transformers/GIS/cables) + polysilicon + new-energy power plants
• AI/DC revenue share: AI-computing high-end transformer orders have exceeded 35% of total orders (company disclosure); 30%/29% share in core UHV AC/DC equipment
• Latest financials: Revenue ~RMB 97.2bn (2025, -0.61%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 5.954bn (+43.69%) | Power transmission and transformation revenue +19.66% | Overseas contracts US$2bn (+68%), including a major RMB 16.4bn Saudi order
• Valuation: PE-TTM ~19.0 / PB ~1.63 / Market cap ~RMB 113.4bn
• Investment logic: Orders + capacity + overseas expansion (global transformer delivery cycles are lengthening, with orders booked through end-2027)
• Real orders: Major RMB 16.4bn localized Saudi order for ultra-high-voltage transformers; core ±800kV UHV DC equipment for projects including Longdong–Shandong
• Key risks: Prolonged trough in the polysilicon cycle dragging on overall revenue and valuation; UHV order cadence depends on State Grid tenders
• Catalysts: Volume ramp in transformers for AI data centers; UHV build-out under the “15th Five-Year Plan”; overseas expansion

Siyuan Electrical (002028) — A Elasticity 82/100

• Beneficiary chain: Full-chain primary transmission and distribution equipment (switchgear / transformers / protection / instrument transformers / ultracapacitors)
• AI/DC revenue share: Breakthrough in North American AIDC high-voltage transformer orders; transformer segment RMB 4.63bn (+38.4%); overseas revenue RMB 5.8bn (+86%)
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 21.539bn (2025, +39.34%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 3.150bn (+53.74%) | Gross margin 30.77% | New orders RMB 28.891bn (+34.64%)
• Valuation: PE-TTM ~45 / 2026E ~36 / 2027E ~26
• Investment logic: Overseas expansion + orders + capacity (global transformer supply-demand remains tight; Phase II capacity to come online in 2025-11, with annual output of 400+ units)
• Real orders: Breakthroughs in Germany/Portugal/Sweden/Finland/Ireland; Phase II of Changzhou Siyuan Toshiba Transformers starts production
• Key risks: Relatively high valuation (PE 45–53x); overseas trade policy; slight YoY decline in gross margin
• Catalysts: North American AIDC transformer spillover demand; overseas channel expansion

Huaming Equipment (002270) — A 79/100

• Beneficiary chain: Domestic leader in transformer tap changers + global oligopolist
• AI/DC revenue share: Indirect exposure (tap changers supplied to transformers); power-equipment business RMB 1.535bn (+16.51%)
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 2.427bn (2025, +4.50%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 710mn (+15.54%) | Gross margin 54.49% (+5.69pct) | Overseas revenue RMB 486mn (+45.43%, 32% of total)
• Valuation: PE ~24 / PB ~5.4–5.9 / Market cap ~RMB 16.9bn
• Investment logic: Overseas expansion + price increases (overseas gross margin higher than domestic)
• Real orders: Overseas customer revenue +45.43%; breakthrough in the Middle East
• Key risks: Ceiling in a niche segment (single-product exposure); modest revenue growth (+4.5%); elevated PB
• Catalysts: Overseas expansion of tap changers (Turkey/Indonesia plants to start production in 2025-08)

Pinggao Electrical (600312) — A 77/100

• Beneficiary chain: UHV GIS (gas-insulated switchgear) + leader in high-voltage switchgear
• AI/DC revenue share: High-voltage segment (including UHV switches/GIS) RMB 7.747bn, accounting for 61.89%; weak direct linkage to data centers
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 12.517bn (2025, +0.93%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 1.120bn (+9.45%) | H1 high-voltage tender wins RMB 3.64bn (+86%) | International business RMB 258mn (+26.30%) but gross margin -24.39%
• Valuation: PE-TTM ~20 / PB ~2.0–2.24 / Market cap ~RMB 23.5bn
• Investment logic: Orders + import substitution (major supplier of UHV GIS)
• Real orders: Cumulative supply of 235 bays of 1100kV GIS; State Grid tender batches 1–6 totaled RMB 91.8bn, with cumulative wins exceeding RMB 7bn
• Key risks: Modest revenue growth (+0.93%); international business still loss-making; dependence on centralized State Grid tenders
• Catalysts: Build-out of the UHV AC backbone grid; overseas single-unit exports (first 420kV GIS orders in Saudi Arabia/Mexico)

Jinpan Technology (688676) — A Elasticity 76/100

• Beneficiary chain: Global leader in dry-type transformers + AIDC integrated power-supply solutions + energy storage
• AI/DC revenue share: 2025 data-center revenue RMB 1.337bn (+196.78%); 2026Q1 data-center orders RMB 1.735bn (+278.45%)
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 7.295bn (2025, +5.71%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 659–660mn (+14.82%) | Gross margin 26.08% (+1.87pct) | Export sales RMB 2.298bn (+16.01%)
• Valuation: PE ~55–59 (2025A) / 2026E ~40 / 2027E ~32
• Investment logic: Orders + capacity + overseas expansion (among the most direct AIDC beneficiaries, with leading delivery cycles)
• Real orders: US$98.99mn (~RMB 696mn) data-center contract with overseas customer F; coverage of major North American CSPs; 2026Q1 orders RMB 1.735bn
• Key risks: Extremely expensive valuation (PE 55–59x); CSP customer concentration; non-monopolistic competition in dry-type transformers
• Catalysts: Volume ramp in AIDC dry-type transformers / integrated systems; major overseas CSP customers; Malaysia/US/Poland capacity

Inovance Technology (300124) — B 76/100

• Beneficiary chain: Industrial-control leader (inverters / servos / PLCs / NEV electric control)
• AI/DC revenue share: Weak linkage to the AI data-center / power-grid main theme; general automation is the core business at RMB 16.9bn (+23%)
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 45.105bn (2025, +21.77%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 5.050bn (+17.84%) | Gross margin 29.27% (-1.75pct)
• Valuation: PE ~38 / 2026E ~31.6 / 2027E ~26
• Investment logic: Import substitution (19.6% share in low-voltage inverters / 30.5% share in servos) + orders
• Real orders: Leading market shares of 19.6% in low-voltage inverters and 30.5% in servos; Q3 general automation +26%
• Key risks: Not a core-name exposure for this theme; competition in NEV business pressuring gross margin; industrial-control cyclicality
• Catalysts: Recovery in industrial controls; industrial robots; volume ramp in NEV electric-control products

Xuji Electrical (000400) — B 74/100

• Beneficiary chain: DC transmission (converter valves / control and protection) + meters + distribution + energy-storage PCS
• AI/DC revenue share: DC transmission accounted for ~6.8% in Q1–Q3 (-29.47%); weak direct linkage to data centers
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 14.992bn (2025, -12.27%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 1.167bn (+4.50%) | Gross margin 23.36% (+2.59pct) | Contract liabilities RMB 2.58bn (+19%)
• Valuation: PE ~20 / Market cap ~RMB 21.7bn
• Investment logic: Orders + import substitution (UHV flexible DC pending volume ramp)
• Real orders: RMB 1.275bn in 2026 UHV DC converter valve + control/protection tender wins; ample backlog in flexible DC
• Key risks: Sharp revenue decline (-12.27%); price cuts in centralized procurement for meters/distribution; delayed realization of flexible DC
• Catalysts: UHV flexible DC volume ramp in 2026H2 (Gansu–Zhejiang / Tangxia back-to-back); grid-forming energy storage

4.3 Nuclear Power Equipment / Uranium / Nuclear Fuel / Nuclear Power Materials

China National Nuclear Power (601985) — S 91/100

• Beneficiary chain: Leading nuclear power operator (pure-play nuclear power + renewables)
• Share of nuclear-related revenue: ~100% (core business is nuclear power + a small amount of renewables; 2025 nuclear power net profit attributable to parent +19%)
• Latest financials: Revenue approx. RMB 82.0bn (2025, +6.22%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 9.304bn (+6.00%) | 26 units in operation (25GW installed capacity), 19 units under construction and approved (21.86GW); after Zhangzhou Unit 2 entered commercial operation in 2026-01: 27 units/26.21GW | 2026Q1 revenue RMB 18.925bn (-6.65%), attributable net profit RMB 2.064bn (-34.19%, due to major overhauls + declining renewable power tariffs)
• Valuation: PE-TTM 22.31 / PB 1.53 / Dividend yield 2.02% / Market cap RMB 183.7bn
• Investment logic: 19 units under construction will enter commercial operation successively → installed capacity/profit expansion; the most certain recipient of AI data center baseload demand
• Actual orders: Self-owned nuclear power units (CNNCGroup); Hualong One/Guohe One projects such as Zhangzhou/Xudasbao/Changjiang
• Key risks: Concentrated major overhauls causing quarterly volatility (already seen in 2026Q1); nuclear power tariff concessions; renewables dragging on ROE
• Catalysts: 19 units under construction entering intensive commercial operation during 2026–2030 (installed capacity +87%)

Dongfang Electrical (600875) — S/A 86/100

• Beneficiary chain: Leading supplier of primary equipment for nuclear island/conventional island (energy equipment manufacturing)
• Share of nuclear-related revenue: Not separately disclosed (energy equipment manufacturing accounted for 67.33% of newly effective orders; nuclear power market share ranks No. 1 in the industry)
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 77.826bn (2025, +13.11%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 3.831bn (+31.11%) | Recurring net profit RMB 3.192bn (+61.17%) | Total order backlog RMB 140.31bn; newly effective orders RMB 117.251bn (+15.93%)
• Valuation: PE-TTM 32.11 / PB 2.36 / Market cap approx. RMB 94.4–104.7bn
• Investment logic: Record-high order backlog of RMB 140.3bn + direct beneficiary of the 6–10 nuclear units/year approval pace
• Actual orders: Primary equipment for CNNC/CGN/State Power Investment Corporation Hualong One and Guohe One; nuclear power market share ranks No. 1 in the industry
• Key risks: Non-recurring gains may have boosted recurring profit growth, making it hard to sustain; long order delivery cycles; steel/raw material prices
• Catalysts: Fulfillment of nuclear power + gas turbine + hydropower orders; overseas nuclear power equipment exports

Jiulian Special Materials (002318) — S/A 85/100

• Beneficiary chain: Domestic leader in nuclear steam generator U-shaped heat-transfer tubes (“No. 1 Nuclear Power Tube”)
• Share of nuclear-related revenue: Power segment (including nuclear power) approx. 15%; annual U-shaped tube capacity approx. 500 tonnes
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 12.059bn (2025, +10.44%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 1.509bn (+1.27%) | Recurring net profit RMB 1.306bn (-14.18%) | Proposed cash dividend of RMB 10 per 10 shares
• Valuation: PE-TTM 15.33–15.57 / PB 2.46–2.55 / Market cap approx. RMB 21.9–23.2bn
• Investment logic: Domestic substitution of third-generation nuclear power U-shaped tubes (690/800 alloys) + full coverage of Hualong One/Guohe One/CAP1000; lowest valuation in the sector
• Actual orders: 690TT alloy U-shaped tubes for CNNC Guohe One (CAP1400); supply orders for Hualong One
• Key risks: Nuclear power accounts for only 15%, limiting earnings elasticity; recurring net profit -14% with gross margin pressure; volatility in steel raw materials
• Catalysts: Accelerated nuclear power approvals driving U-shaped tube demand; volume ramp-up in high-end oil & gas/semiconductor tubes

Jiangsu Shentong (002438) — A 80/100

• Beneficiary chain: Specialized supplier of nuclear power valves (nuclear-grade butterfly valves/ball valves)
• Share of nuclear-related revenue: 38.1% (2025 nuclear power business revenue RMB 811mn, +9.11%); nuclear power gross margin 38.48% (+1.73pct)
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 2.129bn (2025, -0.65%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 285mn (-3.21%) | New orders RMB 2.289bn (Shentong Nuclear RMB 932mn)
• Valuation: PE-TTM 25.56–30.66 / PB 1.94 / Market cap approx. RMB 6.6–7.2bn
• Investment logic: New nuclear power orders of RMB 932mn covering Hualong One/Guohe One + consumable attributes of valves
• Actual orders: Valves for Hualong One/Guohe One; covering most new nuclear power units in 2025
• Key risks: Overall net profit down slightly by 3%; small-cap liquidity; nuclear power delivery pace
• Catalysts: Nuclear power approval pace; high-end capacity release around mid-2026

China State Construction (601611) — A 80/100

• Beneficiary chain: The world’s only nuclear power construction leader with 41 consecutive years of experience
• Share of nuclear-related revenue: 37% (2025 nuclear power engineering revenue RMB 37.675bn, +16.96%)
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 101.916bn (2025, -10.24%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 1.319bn (-36.10%, dragged by credit impairment) | Newly signed contracts RMB 56.414bn (+2.30%)
• Valuation: PE-TTM 17.73–26.85 / PB 0.91–1.40 (below book value) / Market cap approx. RMB 31.4bn
• Investment logic: Contractor for 36 units under construction; 10+ nuclear units approved each year for four consecutive years from 2022–2025
• Actual orders: Builder of all nuclear power units under construction for CNNC/CGN/State Power Investment Corporation
• Key risks: Overall net profit down 36% due to impairment drag; accounts receivable risk in the construction industry; thin margins
• Catalysts: Rising share of nuclear power engineering revenue; FCD pace; 2030 target of 110GW installed capacity

Western Superconducting (688122) — B Fusion Watch 76/100

• Beneficiary chain: The world’s only company with a full-process capability spanning NbTi ingots/bars/wires + superconducting magnets
• Share of nuclear/fusion-related revenue: Superconducting products RMB 1.599bn (30.63% of revenue, +22.70%, fastest-growing); subsidiary Ju Nengsuperconducting magnet recorded superconducting magnet revenue of RMB 227mn in 2025
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 5.226bn (2025, +13.29%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 839mn (+4.81%) | High-temperature alloys +74.65%
• Valuation: PE-TTM 48.19 / PB 4.84
• Investment logic: Superconducting products grew fastest at +22.7%; core supplier for national fusion engineering projects (CFETR/EAST)
• Actual orders: ITER wires have completed delivery; CFETR fusion-related R&D testing
• Key risks: Fusion commercialization is a long-term story after 2030 (theme monetization is distant); high valuation at PE 48/PB 4.84; aerospace titanium growth only 1.48%
• Catalysts: Fusion engineering orders (long term); MRI/accelerator superconducting magnets

Shanghai Electrical (601727) — B 74/100

• Beneficiary chain: No. 1 overall domestic market share in nuclear island primary equipment (Hualong One/CAP/high-temperature gas-cooled reactor)
• Share of nuclear-related revenue: New nuclear power equipment orders of RMB 9.89bn, accounting for approx. 10.8% of the energy equipment segment (RMB 92.13bn); production schedule extends to 2028
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 126.679bn (2025, +9.0%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 1.206bn (+60.3%) | New nuclear power equipment orders RMB 9.89bn (record high); 24 units of nuclear island primary equipment produced
• Valuation: PE-TTM 82.12 / PB 1.32–1.73 / Market cap approx. RMB 107.0bn
• Investment logic: New nuclear power equipment orders reached a record high of RMB 9.89bn in 2025 + secured 16 nuclear island primary equipment units/4 conventional island sets
• Actual orders: Nuclear island primary equipment for Hualong One/CAP reactor types/high-temperature gas-cooled reactors; No. 1 overall domestic market share in nuclear island primary equipment
• Key risks: Low overall net margin (RMB 1.2bn net profit/RMB 126.7bn revenue), PE 82 is high; sprawling main businesses dilute nuclear power earnings elasticity
• Catalysts: Nuclear power equipment order fulfillment through 2028; overseas nuclear power equipment

Yingliang Shares (603308) — B/Caution 73/100

• Beneficiary chain: Sole supplier of nuclear power castings/forgings and primary pump casings + neutron absorbing materials
• Share of nuclear-related revenue: Nuclear power and large/medium cast steel parts 23.40% (RMB 683mn, +6.45%) + new materials 10.03% ≈ 33.43%
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 2.919bn (2025, +16.13%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 349mn (+21.74%) | High-temperature alloy components RMB 1.805bn (+22.89%) | Overseas revenue RMB 1.493bn (+32.78%, 51.15% of total)
• Valuation: PE-TTM 96–110 / PB 8.32
• Investment logic: Sole supplier of Hualong One primary pump casings + overseas revenue +32.78%, exceeding domestic revenue for the first time
• Actual orders: Hualong One primary pump casings (nuclear island Class 1 core components); continued domestic leadership/sole supplier status
• Key risks: Extremely high PE (96–110) and expensive PB 8.32 valuation; growth in nuclear power castings slowed to only +6.45%
• Catalysts: Domestic substitution of nuclear power castings + neutron absorbing materials; volume ramp-up in high-temperature alloys for aircraft engines and gas turbines

CNNC Technology (000777) — B 71/100

• Beneficiary chain: Nuclear power/nuclear engineering valves (key supplier to the three major nuclear power groups)
• Share of nuclear-related revenue: Nuclear engineering valves RMB 992mn (57.31% of revenue, +18.30%)
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 1.731bn (2025, -6.08%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 170mn (-25.92%) | 2026Q1 revenue RMB 121mn, attributable net profit -RMB 10.7mn
• Valuation: PE-TTM 40.98–46.58 / PB 2.6–3.46 / Market cap approx. RMB 6.4–7.3bn
• Investment logic: Nuclear engineering valves grew +18.3% against the trend; engineering application of nuclear-grade helium isolation valves (high-temperature gas-cooled reactors)
• Actual orders: CNNCEngineering/Nuclear Power Academy Seven/CNNCEnergy (related-party transactions); advancing fusion Xinghuo No.1 orders with a single order value of RMB 650mn
• Key risks: Overall net profit down 26%, Q1 loss; small market cap of RMB 6.4bn and liquidity concerns; commercialization of fusion/SMR remains distant
• Catalysts: Helium valves for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors/SMRs; valves for fusion demonstration reactors

Baotai Shares (600456) — Risk Caution 61/100

• Beneficiary chain: China’s largest titanium and titanium alloy production base (weak nuclear power linkage)
• Share of nuclear-related revenue: No direct nuclear power business disclosed; nuclear-grade zirconium is held in affiliated company Guohbao Taizi Zirconium Industry (not consolidated)
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 6.124bn (2025, -8.00%) | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 401mn (-30.45%) | Recurring net profit RMB 317mn (-36.56%) | Finance expenses surged 125%
• Valuation: PE-TTM 33.54–43.42 / PB 1.7–2.14
• Key risks: Downcycle in core titanium materials business drove net profit down 30%; direct nuclear power linkage is weak (nuclear-grade zirconium is not inside the listed entity); finance expenses surged
• Catalysts: Recovery in the titanium materials cycle; higher share of high-end titanium for aerospace/marine applications

CGN Technology (000881) — Risk Caution 59/100

• Beneficiary chain: Nuclear technology applications (electron accelerators/irradiation/proton therapy), not nuclear power operation
• Share of nuclear-related revenue: Accelerator/irradiation business RMB 601mn (+15.88%, approx. 11% of revenue)
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB 5.553bn (2025, -9.97%) | Net profit attributable to parent -RMB 287mn (loss narrowed by 20.73%) | Accelerator/irradiation gross margin 28.45%
• Valuation: Negative PE (-23.32, net loss) / PB 1.47 / Market cap approx. RMB 7.7bn
• Key risks: Continuing loss of RMB 287mn; PE not applicable; dragged by new materials; not a pure nuclear power theme
• Catalysts: Accelerator exports + irradiation volume growth; commercialization of proton therapy equipment

Part V: Research on Hong Kong-Listed Targets

5.1 Internet / Cloud Computing / Telecom Operators / Hardware Supply Chain / IDC

Tencent Holdings (00700) — S 88/100

• Beneficiary chain: China internet + cloud computing leader (social/gaming/advertising/fintech/Tencent Cloud)
• AI/cloud revenue share: Business Services (including cloud) FY2025 ¥229.4B, about 30.5% of total revenue; Q4 single-quarter ¥60.8B (+22% YoY, accelerated by AI cloud)
• Latest financials: FY2025 revenue ¥751.8B (+14%) | non-IFRS net profit ¥280.7B (+18%) | FY total capex ¥79.2B | AI product investment ¥18B, planned to double to ~¥36B in 2026 | FCF ¥182.6B (+18%)
• Valuation: TTM PE (non-IFRS) about 14.5–14.8 / forward about 11.2–11.8 / dividend yield 1.29% (final dividend HKD 5.30, +18%) | total shareholder return (dividends + buybacks) >HKD 120B
• Beneficiary logic: AI monetization (Hunyuan large model + advertising/gaming/cloud) + renewed heavy cloud capex investment + ongoing buybacks
• Real orders: Strong AI-related cloud demand drove Business Services into profitability; Hunyuan integrated into WeChat/WeCom ecosystem
• Key risks: AI capex weighs on near-term margins; geopolitics (chip supply); gaming regulation; Hong Kong equity liquidity discount
• Catalysts: Depth of Hunyuan commercialization, cloud business achieving profitable scale

Alibaba-W (09988) — S/A 82/100

• Beneficiary chain: China’s No. 1 cloud computing player + e-commerce leader (Alibaba Cloud/Taobao & Tmall/international e-commerce)
• AI/cloud revenue share: Alibaba Cloud FY2026Q1 (ended 2026-03) ¥41.63B, about 17% of total revenue, +38% YoY; AI-related product revenue ¥8.97B, about 30% of external cloud revenue (ARR exceeded ¥35.8B), triple-digit growth for 11 consecutive quarters
• Latest financials: FY2026Q1 revenue ¥243.38B (+3%, +11% excluding disposals) | cloud revenue ¥41.63B (+38%) | full-year FY capex ¥126.06B | net profit under pressure (Q4 -66% YoY) | management said AI compute demand far exceeded expectations and will surpass the original ¥380B three-year plan
• Valuation: Trailing PE about 14.3 / dividend yield 1.15% / share price about HKD 89.5, market cap about HKD 1.72T
• Beneficiary logic: Fastest “elephant dancing” in cloud revenue (AI compute demand) + three-year capex of ¥380B+ exceeding expectations
• Real orders: AI product revenue has grown at triple-digit rates for 11 consecutive quarters; external cloud revenue accelerated to +40%
• Key risks: Heavy investment leading to sharp profit volatility; e-commerce competition (Pinduoduo/Douyin); geopolitics (cloud overseas expansion); Hong Kong equity liquidity
• Catalysts: Alibaba Cloud AI revenue share rising to 50%+, capex returns materializing

China Telecom (00728) — S 80/100

• Beneficiary chain: One of the three major telecom operators (Tianyi Cloud in China’s top cloud tier + AIDC)
• AI/cloud revenue share: Tianyi Cloud ¥120.7B; AIDC revenue ¥34.5B; self-owned and connected intelligent computing total scale >94.4 EFLOPS; public cloud IaaS No. 2 in China
• Latest financials: FY2025 revenue ¥529.6B (+0.7%) | net profit attributable to parent ¥33.2B (+0.5%) | EBITDA ¥143.9B (+2.1%) | capex ¥80.4B, 2026 plan ¥73B (computing power ¥25.5B, +26%)
• Valuation: TTM PE about 11.0–11.7 / dividend yield 6.6–7.0% (full-year RMB 0.272/share, payout ratio 75%)
• Beneficiary logic: Largest-scale Tianyi Cloud + AIDC + high dividend yield + capex shifting toward computing power (+26%)
• Real orders: Tianyi Cloud ¥120.7B (largest carrier cloud); AIDC ¥34.5B already at scaled revenue
• Key risks: Thin cloud margins; zero growth in traditional businesses; government/enterprise cloud receivables collection; power constraints
• Catalysts: Tianyi Cloud growth rate, AIDC rack utilization, monetization of 94.4 EFLOPS intelligent computing

China Mobile (00941) — S 80/100

• Beneficiary chain: Leader among the three major telecom operators (computing-network convergence + intelligent computing centers)
• AI/cloud revenue share: Computing power service revenue ¥89.8B (+11.1%), intelligent computing services +279%, AIDC revenue +35.4%; computing power + intelligent services accounted for 20.2% of principal revenue
• Latest financials: FY2025 revenue ¥1,050.2B (+0.9%) | profit attributable to shareholders ¥137.1B (-0.9%, +2.0% on a comparable basis) | EBITDA ¥338.9B | capex ¥150.9B (-8.0%), 2026 plan ¥136.6B (computing power network +62.4%)
• Valuation: TTM PE about 10.6–11.4 / dividend yield 6.5–6.8% (full-year HKD 5.27/share, +3.5%, payout ratio 75%)
• Beneficiary logic: Intelligent computing surge + high dividend yield + computing-network infrastructure + capex tilted toward computing power
• Real orders: Intelligent computing services +279% and AIDC +35.4% are the strongest signals of computing power growth among telecom operators; serves government clouds in 180+ provinces and cities
• Key risks: Traditional revenue plateauing (+0.9%); computing power revenue base still small; tax reform/policy
• Catalysts: Intelligent computing/AIDC revenue taking over from traditional telecom, dividend yield maintained at 7%+

Sunny Optical (02382) — A Elasticity 78/100

• Beneficiary chain: Global optical leader (smartphone lenses/automotive optics/XR/silicon photonics)
• AI/cloud revenue share: Automotive optics ¥7.33B (+21.3%), XR and others ¥8.58B (+20.8%); silicon photonics production line to enter mass production in 2027 (data center optical modules)
• Latest financials: FY2025 revenue ¥43.23B (+12.9%) | net profit attributable to parent ¥4.64B (+71.9%) | gross margin 19.7% (+2.2pct) | operating cash flow ¥6.08B (+76%) | 2026 capex ~¥3–3.5B
• Valuation: TTM PE about 12.0–14.1 / dividend yield 1.98% (final dividend HKD 1.206/share, doubled)
• Beneficiary logic: AI hardware supply chain (automotive ADAS + XR AI glasses + silicon photonics) + premiumization lifting profits + automotive business spin-off
• Real orders: Global No. 1 in automotive lens shipments; leading 8MP perception modules; ramp-up of smart glasses imaging modules; silicon photonics as a new AI datacenter growth curve
• Key risks: Smartphone shipment cycle; uncertainty over automotive business spin-off; pace of silicon photonics mass production; geopolitics (overseas customers)
• Catalysts: Silicon photonics mass production, independent listing of automotive business spin-off (late 2026–2027), XR/AI glasses volume ramp

China Unicom (00762) — A 77/100

• Beneficiary chain: One of the three major telecom operators (Unicom Cloud + intelligent computing)
• AI/cloud revenue share: Computing power business accounts for >15% of principal revenue; AI revenue +140%; Unicom Cloud +5.2%; data centers ¥28.1B (+8.5%); intelligent computing 45 EFLOPS, 1.1M+ racks
• Latest financials: FY2025 revenue ¥392.2B (+0.7%) | net profit attributable to parent ¥20.8B (+1.1%) | FCF ¥37.3B (+24.7%) | capex ¥54.2B, 2026 plan ~¥50B (computing power >35%)
• Valuation: Hong Kong shares TTM PE about 8.3–10.3 / dividend yield 6.4–7.3% (full-year RMB 0.417/share, +3.1%, payout ratio 61.3%)
• Beneficiary logic: AI revenue +140% + high dividend yield + 2026 computing power capex share >35% + lowest valuation
• Real orders: AI revenue +140% (fastest growth); government clouds in 180+ provinces and cities; intelligent computing 45 EFLOPS
• Key risks: Unicom Cloud growth only +5.2% (slowest); smallest scale; thin margins
• Catalysts: Sustained AI revenue growth of +140%, payout ratio raised to 70%+

Lenovo (00992) — A 76/100

• Beneficiary chain: Global PC leader + servers (ISG) + smartphones
• AI/cloud revenue share: ISG FY25/26 revenue ~$19.2B (+32%); AI-related business +105% for the full year, accounting for 33% of total revenue (38% in Q4); AI server order pipeline reached $21B in Q4
• Latest financials: FY25/26 (ended 2026-03) revenue ~$83.1B (+20%, record high) | adjusted net profit ~$2B (+42%) | ISG ~$19.2B (+32%, turned profitable)
• Valuation: TTM PE about 21.5 / dividend HKD 0.39/share, dividend yield about 1.8%
• Beneficiary logic: AI server orders exploding + ISG turnaround + hybrid AI strategy
• Real orders: AI business +105% and accounted for 33% of revenue; ISG order pipeline $21B
• Key risks: Thin margins in server hardware; geopolitics (U.S. restrictions on Chinese server supply chain); PC cycle; PE of 21.5 on the high side
• Catalysts: AI server orders converting (pipeline of $21B), ISG margin improvement

Kuaishou-W (01024) — A/B 72/100

• Beneficiary chain: Short video + live-streaming e-commerce + Kling AI (video generation)
• AI/cloud revenue share: Kling AI Q4 revenue ¥340M, 2026-03 ARR near $50M (doubled)
• Latest financials: FY2025 revenue ¥142.8B (+12.5%) | adjusted net profit ¥20.6B (+16.5%, net margin 14.5%) | 2026 capex plan ~¥26B (about ¥11B more than 2025, for Kling compute/server/IDC)
• Valuation: TTM PE about 8.4–9.6 / 2026E about 9.8 / dividend yield 1.69% (final dividend HKD 0.69/share)
• Beneficiary logic: Kling AI commercialization + significant step-up in AI capex + low valuation
• Real orders: Kling AI has already generated quarterly revenue (Q4 ¥340M) + ARR doubled, making it one of the few Hong Kong-listed names with direct generative AI revenue
• Key risks: Kling revenue share still small; capex of ¥26B weighs on profit (share price once fell -14% after announcement); “laotie” user dividend plateauing
• Catalysts: Kling AI ARR exceeding $2B, competition in the video generation sector

Baidu (09888) — B 68/100

• Beneficiary chain: AI-native + search + intelligent cloud (ERNIE large model/Apollo)
• AI/cloud revenue share: Intelligent Cloud Q4 ¥5.8B (+34% YoY), full year ~¥30B (+34%); AI infra (compute subscription) Q4 +143% YoY; AI-native marketing Q4 ¥2.7B (18% of core online marketing)
• Latest financials: Q4 revenue ¥32.7B (-4% YoY) | GAAP net profit ¥1.8B (-43%) | non-GAAP net profit ¥3.9B (net margin 12%) | FY AI cloud ¥30B (+34%)
• Valuation: TTM PE (non-GAAP) about 14.9 / dividend yield 0% (first adopted dividend policy in 2026, buyback of up to $5B through end-2028)
• Beneficiary logic: Earliest AI monetization (ERNIE) + high intelligent cloud growth + compute subscription surge, but core advertising under pressure
• Real orders: ERNIE large model API + AI-native marketing revenue disclosed; compute subscription +143% YoY
• Key risks: Search ads cannibalized by AI search; uncertain ROI from AI monetization; profit -43%; geopolitics (chips)
• Catalysts: ERNIE commercialization offsetting advertising decline, Apollo Robotaxi scaling

SMIC (00981) — B/Caution 66/100

• Beneficiary chain: Largest wafer foundry in mainland China (mature + advanced processes)
• AI/cloud revenue share: AI share not separately disclosed; capacity utilization rate of 93.5% reflects robust demand
• Latest financials: FY2025 revenue ~$9.33B/¥67.3B (+16.5%) | Q4 $2.489B (+12.8% YoY) | net profit attributable to parent ¥5.04B (+36.3%) | capacity utilization Q4 95.7%/FY 93.5% (+8pct) | 2025 capex ~$8.1B
• Valuation: TTM PE about 120–128 / dividend yield 0% (no distribution in 2024–2025, maintaining high capex)
• Beneficiary logic: Foundry demand from domestic AI chips + recovery in capacity utilization + advanced process breakthroughs, but expensive valuation + no dividend
• Real orders: Capacity utilization of 95.7% + revenue +16.5% are demand signals
• Key risks: PE 120+ is extremely expensive; U.S. equipment controls impede advanced processes; capex of $8B+ pressures profits; heaviest geopolitical discount
• Catalysts: Pace of advanced process breakthroughs, domestic AI chip customer orders

Kingsoft Cloud (03896) — Risk Caution 64/100

• Beneficiary chain: Independent public cloud service provider (Xiaomi/Kingsoft ecosystem)
• AI/cloud revenue share: Q1 2026 AI cloud billing revenue ¥998M (+90.1%), for the first time accounting for 50.1% of public cloud revenue
• Latest financials: Q1 2026 revenue ¥2.704B (+37.2%) | FY2025 revenue ¥9.559B (+22.8%) | capex Q1 2026 ¥3B (+38%), full-year plan ¥15–20B
• Valuation: TTM PE about -19.6 (loss-making) / dividend yield 0%
• Beneficiary logic: Pure-play AI cloud target (intelligent computing demand surge) + Xiaomi/WPS ecosystem customers
• Real orders: AI cloud billing +90% and accounts for 50%+ of public cloud
• Key risks: Persistent losses; capex of ¥15–20B far exceeds revenue (¥9.5B), creating financial pressure; public cloud price war; customer concentration (Xiaomi)
• Catalysts: AI cloud share maintained at 50%+, gross margin turning positive

GDS-SW (09698) — Risk Caution 64/100

• Beneficiary chain: China’s leading third-party IDC (data center operations + DayOne overseas)
• AI/cloud revenue share: 100% data center business; utilization rate 75.5%; 2025 new orders at five-year high; Q1 2026 added ~200MW (record high)
• Latest financials: FY2025 net revenue ¥11.43B (+10.8%) | adjusted EBITDA ¥5.40B (47.3%) | Q1 2026 net revenue ¥3.37B (+23.6%), adjusted EBITDA ¥1.95B (57.9%) | 2026 capex ~¥9B; domestic AI infra ¥30–50B over the next three years
• Valuation: PE not applicable (loss-making/heavy expansion) / dividend yield 0%
• Beneficiary logic: AI compute driving explosive IDC demand + utilization recovery + overseas DayOne ramp-up
• Real orders: Q1 added 200MW, a record; utilization rate recovered to 75.5%; ABS + asset monetization
• Key risks: Power/energy-consumption constraints (PDU quotas in tier-one cities); persistent losses; high leverage; capex ¥9B+
• Catalysts: Utilization rising from 75.5% to 85%+, overseas DayOne ramp-up

Meituan-W (03690) — Risk Caution 61/100

• Beneficiary chain: Local services + instant retail leader (food delivery/in-store/new businesses)
• AI/cloud revenue share: No direct cloud/AI revenue disclosed; AI reflected through R&D investment, R&D ¥26B (+23%, 7.1% of revenue)
• Latest financials: FY2025 revenue ¥364.9B (+8.1%) | net loss attributable to parent ¥234M (swung to loss, food delivery competition) | Q4 adjusted net loss ¥1.508B
• Valuation: TTM PE about 16.85 (GAAP net loss implies -285) / dividend yield 0%
• Key risks: “Involution-style” competition in food delivery driving wider losses; market share battle in local services; weakest relevance to AI and capex themes
• Catalysts: Competitive landscape in instant retail, AI assistant as a traffic gateway

5.2 Power / Utilities / Energy / Infrastructure

CLP Holdings (00002) — S 84/100

• Beneficiary chain: Regional integrated power operator in Hong Kong/Australia/India; 100% owner of CLP Power Hong Kong (serving 80%+ of Hong Kong residents)
• AI/DC relevance: Hong Kong data-center electricity sales +7.5% in 2025 and +11.1% YoY in 2026Q1 (driving overall electricity sales +3.2%); plans to connect 18 large data centers by 2028 (including the Sha Ling supercomputing center); CLP Power Hong Kong delivers 99.999% supply reliability
• Latest financials: Revenue HK$88.018bn (2025, -3.2%) | Net profit attributable to shareholders HK$10.468bn (-10.85%) | Net margin 11.9%
• Valuation: PE 17.81 (TTM) / PB 1.67 / Dividend yield 4.28% (full-year dividend HK$3.20, +1.6%) | Market cap HK$186.3bn
• Investment logic: Electricity volume growth (direct supply to data centers) + regulated monopoly grid returns + nuclear baseload (Daya Bay supply to Hong Kong) + stable dividends
• Real orders: Hong Kong electricity sales 7.319bn kWh (2026Q1, +3.2%); data centers +11.1%; transport electrification +32.4%
• Key risks: PE is relatively high (17.8x, the most expensive in the sector); reduced nuclear contribution; drag from Australian retail competition; rising interest rates pressuring valuation
• Catalysts: Hong Kong Northern Metropolis + grid connection of 18 data centers; Daya Bay nuclear power contract renewal

China General Nuclear Power (01816) — S 81/100

• Beneficiary chain: Nuclear power operating platform under CGNGroup (pure-play nuclear baseload, the cleanest thematic exposure)
• AI/DC relevance: Exploring “compute-power coordination” with direct nuclear supply to computing power; nuclear power serves as a stable baseload anchor; installed capacity to exceed 110GW under the “15th Five-Year Plan” (world No. 1 by 2030); Fangchenggang Units 5–6 / Taishan Units 3–4 approved in 2025
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB75.697bn (2025, -4.11%) | Net profit attributable to shareholders RMB9.765bn (-9.90%) | On-grid power generation 232.648bn kWh (+2.36%)
• Valuation: PE 12.6–13.1 (TTM) / Dividend yield 3.56%
• Investment logic: Normalized approvals driving installed-capacity growth + scarcity re-rating for baseload assets + stable power tariffs
• Real orders: 28 operating units totaling 31.8GW (including 6 associates) + 16 units under construction totaling 19.4GW; power generation 232.6bn kWh; safe operations with zero unplanned shutdowns
• Key risks: Margin decline from pressure on power tariffs (net profit -9.9%); approval/commissioning schedule; relatively low dividend yield
• Catalysts: Commissioning cadence of the 16 approved units under the “14th Five-Year Plan”; FCD for new units

CNOOC (00883) — A Undervalued Re-rating 82/100

• Beneficiary chain: China’s largest offshore oil and gas producer (weaker thematic fit, strongest financial profile)
• AI/DC relevance: Weakly related — natural gas output +12% can serve as feedstock for power generation, but the company is not a power operator
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB398.22bn (2025, -5.3%) | Net profit attributable to shareholders RMB122.082bn (-11.5%) | Net margin 30.7% | Production 777.3mn BOE (+7%, record high) | All-in oil cost USD27.90/BOE (-2.2%)
• Valuation: PE 7.6 (H shares) / Dividend yield 6.1% (full-year dividend HK$1.28, payout ratio 45%)
• Investment logic: Production growth + ultra-low cost base + high dividends, but oil prices remain under pressure
• Real orders: Production 777.3mn BOE (oil 401.8 + gas 79.95bn cubic feet); record-high reserves
• Key risks: Downside in oil prices (net profit -11.5%); thematic mismatch (oil and gas, not power); geopolitics
• Catalysts: Oil and gas production growth (Guyana/Bohai); cost advantage per barrel

Hua Run Power (00836) — A 79/100

• Beneficiary chain: Nationwide power operator under Hua Run Group (roughly half thermal power, half renewables)
• AI/DC relevance: Core thermal-power profit +64.7%, reflecting rising baseload value; managed grid-connected capacity 104,118MW; thermal power sales +16.4%
• Latest financials: Revenue HK$102.010bn (2025, -3.11%) | Net profit attributable to shareholders HK$14.519bn (+0.9%) | Core profit HK$15.243bn (+9.9%) | Net margin 14.2%
• Valuation: PE 6.14 (TTM) / Dividend yield 6.14% (full-year dividend HK$1.127, payout ratio 40.2%)
• Investment logic: Thermal-power earnings leverage + installed-capacity growth + low valuation and high dividend yield + catalyst from A-share spin-off of the renewables business
• Real orders: Attributable grid-connected capacity 89,647MW (thermal 44,796 + wind/solar/hydro 44,851, each ~50%); electricity sales 226,790GWh
• Key risks: Renewable energy core profit -17.6% (lower tariffs/utilization hours); uncertain spin-off timeline; market-oriented power reform
• Catalysts: Valuation re-rating from A-share spin-off of the renewables business; thermal power tariffs/coal prices

Huaneng InternationalPower (00902) — A 79/100

• Beneficiary chain: China’s largest nationwide thermal-power operator under HuanengGroup (core thermal baseload in transition + pumped storage + renewables)
• AI/DC relevance: Coal/thermal power expansion helps fill the AI power-demand gap; coal power accounts for 59% of controllable capacity; thermal utilization hours 3,959h, above the national average
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB229.288bn (2025, -6.62%) | Net profit attributable to shareholders RMB14.537bn (+42.73%, a nearly 10-year high) | Net margin 6.3%
• Valuation: Dividend yield 7.0–8.44% (RMB0.40 per share) / PE ~8
• Investment logic: Thermal-power earnings leverage (net profit +42.7%, a 10-year high) + rigid baseload demand + high dividend yield
• Real orders: Controllable capacity 155,869MW (thermal 91,953MW, 59%); utilization hours 3,111h
• Key risks: Coal-price rebound eroding profits; downward pressure from market-based power tariffs; decline in utilization hours (-445h)
• Catalysts: Falling coal prices supporting thermal-power profitability; installed-capacity growth

China Power (02380) — A 70/100

• Beneficiary chain: Clean-energy transition platform under State Power Investment Corporation (clean energy accounts for 82%, weaker baseload characteristics)
• AI/DC relevance: Weak thematic relevance — clean energy is mainly wind and solar, while baseload share is declining; added 3,820MW of thermal power to support energy security
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB49.029bn (2025, -9.56%) | Net profit attributable to shareholders RMB3.404bn (-11.85%) | Net margin 6.9%
• Valuation: PE 10–10.9 / Dividend yield ~6% (final dividend RMB0.168, payout ratio 70%)
• Real orders: Consolidated installed capacity 54,754MW (clean energy 82.07% of capacity, 64.51% of revenue)
• Key risks: Double-digit net profit decline; net margin only 6.9%; falling power tariffs
• Catalysts: Clean-energy capacity expansion; acquisition-driven growth

Kunlun Energy (00135) — B 68/100

• Beneficiary chain: City-gas + natural-gas pipeline operator under PetroChina
• AI/DC relevance: Indirect — natural-gas power generation can provide peaking/baseload supplementation; pipeline network covers 31 provinces and spans 95,000 km
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB193.979bn (2025, +3.71%) | Net profit attributable to shareholders RMB5.346bn (-10.3%) | Net margin 2.8% | Gas sales volume 59.26bn m³ (+9.4%)
• Valuation: PE 9.4–10 / Dividend yield ~4.8% (full-year dividend RMB0.3158, payout ratio 46.17%)
• Real orders: Gas sales 59.26bn m³; 95,000 km pipeline network serving 17.19mn households; industrial gas 77.7% of volume
• Key risks: Narrowing retail gas spread driving net profit -10.3%; net margin only 2.8%; fluctuations in natural-gas demand
• Catalysts: Growth in gas sales volume; spread recovery

Longyuan Power (00916) — Risk Watch 65/100

• Beneficiary chain: Wind-power leader under State Energy Investment Corporation (pure wind/solar exposure, non-baseload)
• AI/DC relevance: Weak thematic relevance — wind and solar are intermittent energy sources, not the 24/7 baseload power required by data centers; also pressured by lower tariffs as renewables fully enter the power market
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB30.253bn (2025, -18.60%) | Net profit attributable to shareholders RMB4.526bn (-28.78%) | Wind utilization hours 2,052 (-138h)
• Valuation: Dividend yield ~3.4% / PE ~8–10
• Real orders: Controlled installed capacity 45,994MW (wind 32,147 + solar 13,841); power generation 76,469GWh
• Key risks: Downward pressure on tariffs from full market participation of renewables (net profit -29%); declining utilization hours; thematic mismatch
• Catalysts: New capacity additions; green-power trading

China Gas (00384) — Risk Watch 64/100

• Beneficiary chain: National leader in city-gas distribution (fiscal year-end in April)
• AI/DC relevance: Weak — city-gas distribution; data centers can use natural gas for distributed generation, but it is not the core business
• Latest financials: Revenue HK$73.604bn (FY2025/26 ended 2026-03-31) | Net profit attributable to shareholders HK$2.719bn (-16.4%) | Gas sales volume 41.43bn m³
• Valuation: Dividend yield ~5–6% (final dividend HK$0.20, full-year HK$0.35) / PE ~13–15
• Key risks: Net profit -16.4% with continued decline; connection demand peaking; dividend cut (from HK$0.50 last year to HK$0.35); property-sector drag
• Catalysts: Gas sales volume growth (guidance 2%+); recovery in connections

Beijing Energy International (00686) — Risk Watch 52/100

• Beneficiary chain: Overseas + domestic clean-energy operator under Beijing Energy Group (solar/wind/hydro/storage; non-baseload, pure wind/solar)
• AI/DC relevance: Weak — pure wind/solar is intermittent and not data-center baseload; the company has also swung from profit to loss
• Latest financials: Revenue RMB7.737bn (2025, +10.4%) | Net profit attributable to shareholders -RMB159mn (swung from profit to loss) | Net margin -2.1%
• Valuation: PE not applicable (loss-making) / Installed capacity 14,185MW (+12.2%)
• Key risks: Persistent losses; high leverage; declining renewable power tariffs; thematic mismatch
• Catalysts: Capacity expansion; overseas projects; turnaround to profitability

Part 6: Cross-Market Comparison

6.1 Overview of the Strengths and Weaknesses of the Three Major Markets

6.2 What to Buy in Each Market

• Buy “certainty” → U.S. stocks: NVDA/TSM/MSFT/ETN/VST/CEG/NEE/LNG/WMB/KMI. Global monopolies + strong FCF + relatively reasonable valuations make them the core allocation candidates. They include both names that are already expensive but highly certain (NVDA/TSM) and names whose valuations still offer upside optionality (VST/NEE/KMI).
• Buy “optionality/domestic substitution” → A-shares: China National Nuclear Power/NARI Technology/TBever Electric (low valuation + certainty); Sungrow Power Supply/CATL (global energy-storage leaders, cyclical upside); Zhongji Innolight/Foxconn Industrial Internet (leaders in the AI compute chain); Cambricon/Hygon (domestic chip substitution theme, but with large valuation bubbles). Earnings delivery must be identified—Inspur’s “revenue growth without profit growth,” TFC’s “gross margin decline,” and Cambricon’s “RMB 900 billion market cap/RMB 2 billion profit” are real issues.
• Buy “low-valuation re-rating + high dividends” → Hong Kong stocks: Tencent/Alibaba (PE14 + AI monetization); China Telecom/China Mobile/China Unicom (7% dividend yield + intelligent-computing ramp-up); China General Nuclear Power (PE13 + pure nuclear baseload); CLP Holdings (4.3% yield + direct supply to Hong Kong data centers); Huaneng International (7–8% yield + thermal-power optionality). The strongest defensiveness but weaker upside, suitable as a foundational position.

6.3 Classification of Holding Strategies by Name

6.4 One-Sentence Cross-Market Conclusion

Buy certainty in U.S. stocks (core positions) + buy domestic-substitution optionality in A-shares (timing positions) + buy low-valuation, high-dividend names in Hong Kong stocks (defensive positions). Suggested allocation across the three markets (research framework, not investment advice): U.S. stocks 50–60% / A-shares 20–30% / Hong Kong stocks 15–25%, adjusted according to risk preference. Valuation is the biggest risk controller—within the same theme, China National Nuclear Power/NARI Technology/TBever Electric at PE 22 vs Cambricon at PE 337/Hygon at PE 294; long-term return differences will be determined primarily by entry valuation.

Part Seven: Final Investment Pool

Score = Trend 20 + Moat 20 + Execution 20 + Valuation 15 + Financials 10 + Returns 5 + Risk 10, out of 100. Tiers: S Core (high certainty) / A Upside (large potential, high volatility) / B Watchlist (compelling thesis, execution yet to be validated) / Caution (clear issues in valuation/financials/orders/business model).

7.1 S-Tier Core Assets (High Certainty, Ongoing Tracking)

7.2 A-Rated Growth-Elasticity Assets (Large Runway, High Volatility)

7.3 Tier-B Thematic Watchlist Assets (Compelling Logic, Execution Yet to Be Validated)

7.4 Risk-Watch Assets (Clear Issues in Valuation/Financials/Orders/Business Model)

Part 8: Follow-up Tracking Checklist

8.1 Key Indicators to Track Each Quarter

Macro and Industry Level

1. Hyperscaler capex delivery: MSFT/GOOGL/META/AMZN/ORCL quarterly actual capex vs guidance (2026 combined ~$690–725B). Core leading indicator.
2. IEA/EIA data center electricity consumption: Whether the annual path of 485TWh (2025) → 945TWh (2030) is revised upward; whether U.S. data centers account for ~50% of incremental power demand as expected.
3. WFE (wafer fab equipment spending): Whether the 2026 $140B guidance continues to be revised upward (~$8B WFE per $100B AI capex).
4. 800G/1.6T optical module shipments: Whether the 2026 estimate of ~63M is achieved; whether 1.6T yield and InP laser supply bottlenecks ease.
5. China electricity consumption and UHV: Growth in total electricity consumption (2025 +5.0%), number of UHV lines approved/commissioned, and data center electricity consumption growth under the “East Data, West Computing” initiative (Guizhou/Hangzhou samples).
6. Nuclear power approval pace: Whether China sustains approvals of 6–10 units per year; NRC licensing progress for U.S. SMRs (Oklo/NuScale).
7. Uranium prices: Spot/contract price trends (Cameco realized prices lag spot).
8. Interest rates and the U.S. dollar: REITs/utilities are rate-sensitive; the U.S. dollar affects multinationals (ABB/Schneider/TSMC ADR).

8.2 Company-level Key Tracking Indicators (by Theme)

8.3 Data Changes that Would Validate the Thesis

• Compute chain: Actual hyperscaler capex reaches or exceeds the $700B guidance; NVDA Blackwell/Rubin shipments exceed expectations; TSMC raises prices for advanced nodes.
• Power chain: GEV gas turbine backlog exceeds 110GW; ETN/Eaton transformer backlog remains up more than +40%; NARI Technology/TBever on-hand orders up more than +15%.
• Nuclear power chain: China National Nuclear Power’s 19 units under construction enter commercial operation on schedule; CEG TMI connects to the grid in 2027; VST Meta PPA contributes EBITDA in 2027.
• Domestic substitution: Cambricon/Hygon shipments reach the 2026 target (500,000 chips); SMIC improves advanced-node yields; progress in domestic HBM production.

8.4 Data Changes that Would Disprove the Thesis

• AI capex slowdown: Actual hyperscaler capex falls more than 10% below guidance; cloud growth drops below 25%; AMZN/CRWV FCF remains negative.
• HBM cycle reversal: After Samsung/SK new capacity comes online in CY2027–28, HBM prices decline by more than 20% YoY; MU gross margin falls back from 85%.
• Valuation bubble bursts: For PE >150 targets such as Cambricon/Hygon/Envicool, if earnings fall short of expectations, valuation digestion pressure would be extremely high.
• Power-demand thesis disproved: Data center electricity consumption growth falls short of IEA expectations; transformer delivery lead times shorten; grid investment falls below the “15th Five-Year Plan” average of RMB 800B per year.
• Nuclear power thesis disproved: Major NRC licensing delays; first power from SMRs postponed beyond 2030; China’s nuclear power approval pace slows.
• Export controls escalate: The U.S. upgrades controls on AI chips/HBM/equipment exports to China, with Zhongji Innolight (90% overseas), Cambricon/Hygon (process-node dependence on TSMC) bearing the brunt.

8.5 Macro Events that Could Change the Investment Conclusion

1. Geopolitical conflict in the Taiwan Strait — A TSMC supply disruption would hit the global AI chip chain (the largest single-point risk, affecting all of NVDA/AMD/AVGO).
2. Further escalation of U.S. AI export controls — Comprehensive restrictions on HBM/advanced nodes/optical modules would benefit domestic substitution (Cambricon/Hygon/SMIC) but create near-term pressure on targets with high overseas revenue exposure (Zhongji Innolight/Eoptolink/Foxconn Industrial Internet).
3. Large Fed rate moves — Higher rates pressure valuations for REITs (EQIX/DLR/AMT) and utilities (NEE/SO/CLP Holdings); rate cuts would have the opposite effect.
4. AI commercialization ROI disproved — If hyperscaler AI capex cannot translate into cloud revenue/advertising monetization, a capex slowdown would have a chain reaction across the entire compute chain.
5. China power market reform/nuclear policy — If market-based nuclear power tariffs involve substantial concessions, profits at China National Nuclear Power/China General Nuclear Power would come under pressure; the value of flexible resources in the new power system would be reassessed.
6. Sharp oil/gas price volatility — Profits and dividends at CNOOC/Cheniere/Hua Run Power/Huaneng International would be affected.
7. China-U.S. relations/exchange rates — Changes in the Hong Kong stock liquidity discount and A-share geopolitical discount; RMB exchange rate movements affect CNOOC/SMIC ADR, among others.